Recently, a report released by Coinbase has drawn widespread attention in the cryptocurrency market. The report points out that due to the implementation of global tariffs and potential upgrades, negative sentiment in the market has arisen, and a new round of 'crypto winter' may be approaching. However, Coinbase holds an optimistic expectation for the market in the second half of 2025. This seemingly contradictory judgment is backed by a deep analysis of the market's complex situation.
Market Status: Dual warnings of technical breakdown and market capitalization shrinkage
Bitcoin (BTC) and the COIN50 index have both fallen below the 200-day moving average (200DMA). The breakdown of this key technical indicator is seen as an important signal of market trend change. Market data shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin has dropped to $950 billion, a 41% decrease from the peak of $1.6 trillion in December 2024, even lower than most levels during the period from August 2021 to April 2022. The altcoin market has shrunk significantly, with venture capital slightly improving compared to the end of 2024, but still 50%-60% lower than the peaks during the 2021-2022 bull market cycle, indicating severe blockage of new capital inflow.
Macroeconomic Factors: Core driving force behind market decline
Coinbase believes that the escalation of global tariffs and the ongoing fiscal tightening policy are key factors driving the market decline. These macroeconomic headwinds suppress investor risk appetite, leading to a freeze of funds flowing into altcoins and early blockchain projects. Both traditional assets and digital assets are under pressure, and the investment environment is in a state of 'paralysis'. From Morgan Stanley's market sentiment indicators, it is evident that tariffs have a significant impact on market sentiment, with negative sentiment spreading and exacerbating market turbulence.
Optimistic Expectations: Rational judgments based on market cycles
Despite current market pressures, Coinbase remains cautiously optimistic. Its research team points out that the market may bottom out in the later part of the second quarter of 2025, laying the foundation for recovery in the second half of the year. This judgment is based on an understanding of market cycles; historically, the recovery of sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is often rapid. For instance, from the end of 2021 to early 2023, although the market experienced severe downturns and market capitalization significantly evaporated, it eventually gradually emerged from the gloom. Although the current market appears chaotic, similar liquidity pressures and signs of investment fatigue may indicate an opportunity for a bottom rebound.
Investment Strategy: Cautious layout and opportunity capture
For investors, Coinbase's perspective offers important insights. In the short term, defensive strategies should be adopted to cope with market sentiment downturns and macro pressures. However, from a mid-term perspective, attention should be maintained on turning points of market sentiment to adopt tactical layouts. The cryptocurrency market has both crises and opportunities, and investors need to combine professional analysis with market dynamics to capture potential opportunities under controllable risks.
Coinbase's warning and optimistic expectations reflect the complexity and cyclicality of the cryptocurrency market. Multiple factors such as global tariffs and monetary policy intertwine, bringing both challenges and opportunities. Market participants need to analyze deeply from a professional perspective and respond rationally to grasp the direction amidst volatility. The future direction of the cryptocurrency market is worth continuous attention and discussion.