I believe reconciliation will come sooner or later
刘多鱼
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If Trump holds onto the dream of eliminating personal income tax through tariffs, I suggest that both sides or multiple parties completely decouple from the United States. This move will lead to a restoration of a semi-colonial structure in the long run, and U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. stocks, and the U.S. dollar will suffer unprecedented blows. If Trump insists on realizing his dream of eliminating income tax through tariffs, this empire will be dismantled. Currently, the funds supported by the U.S. stock and bond markets still believe that things will improve.
The U.S. has also entered a path of political economy. If Trump continues to release the idea of using tariff revenues to eliminate over $20 trillion in personal income tax and forcibly interfere with or undermine the Federal Reserve, the foundation of that beautiful empire will be shaken. Solving the trade deficit is a matter of productivity, not tariffs. Most trade deficits are caused by U.S. companies sending goods from overseas bases to the U.S., which is why we can see huge profits from companies like Apple and Tesla. If the current policies continue, the U.S. stock market is far from hitting the bottom. Two weeks have passed since the tariffs were imposed, and as I mentioned before, the 1-3 week period is a countermeasure window; financial phenomena during this time are meaningless.
In fact, the rise of the United States is not that far away. A hundred years ago, the U.S. was still a semi-slave country, with a large number of factory workers needing to work 16-18 hours. American workers proposed an 8-hour workday, and the Soviet Union was the first to implement it. The 8-hour, five-day workweek was also first executed by the Soviet Union. Throughout World War II, the U.S. was like an industrial machine dumping war supplies to the world, as well as a large sweatshop.
This empire does not ignore history; it knows that every step it takes is accompanied by sweat and blood. After World War II, in order to acquire talent, technology, victory, and to avoid falling behind, it absorbed a large number of heavy war criminals and engineers from Germany and Japan. Under the steel skin of American machinery, one can see the shadows of German precision and the logic of Japanese modularity.
It is not that America does not learn from history, but that it cannot face it directly. Every empire in its early stages has some things that are hard to bring to light, but America does the most of it.
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