Current Price Dynamics$BTC
As of today during the Asian session, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently reported around $84,000. After retracing to the support level of $83,000 last night, it rebounded but failed to break through the key resistance level of $86,000. On the daily chart, BTC remains in an ascending wedge structure, and in the short term, the following key levels need attention: Support levels: $83,000 (daily MA30 moving average), $81,500 (weekly MA256 moving average); Resistance levels: $85,000 (4-hour trendline pressure), $86,000 (daily MA60 moving average)
Technical Analysis
Intensifying Bull-Bear Battle:
Yesterday, a false breakout occurred near $85,800, and bears suppressed the rebound through concentrated selling (approximately $30 million in short positions), causing retail investors to stop-loss and exit. Currently, small-scale K-lines have repeatedly closed near $83,000, showing the effectiveness of short-term support. If a double bottom structure forms, it may trigger a rebound to the $85,000-$86,000 range.
Divergence in Indicator Signals:
MACD: Momentum on the 4-hour level is weakening; attention needs to be paid to whether the golden cross can continue.
RSI: Neutral range (50-55), no overbought/oversold signals observed, but a breakout above $85,000 may trigger FOMO sentiment.
Market Sentiment and Driving Factors
Macroeconomic Risk: The Trump administration's tariff policy (tariffs on China raised to 245%) has triggered risk-averse sentiment, potentially pushing gold prices up and indirectly suppressing BTC's short-term performance.
On-Chain Data: Whale addresses show stable holdings, with high concentration of chips in the $83,000-$86,000 range. If it breaks below $83,000, it may trigger panic selling.
ETF Dynamics: Some inflows into spot ETFs have slowed, but institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, indicating unchanged long-term confidence.
Operational Strategy
Bullish Opportunities:
Entry Point: Light long positions near $83,500-$83,800, with a stop loss below $83,000.
Target Level: $85,000 (first take profit), $86,000 (hold for breakout).
Bearish Opportunities:
Entry Point: After being pressured at $85,000-$86,000, lay out short positions, with a stop loss above $86,500.
Target Level: $81,500 (add to positions if it breaks below $83,000).
Risk Warning
If it breaks below the support level of $81,500, a head and shoulders pattern may form, leading to a deeper correction to the $80,000-$81,000 range.
Pay attention to the market correlation after tonight's U.S. stock market opens; if macro data worsens (such as slowing GDP growth), it may exacerbate volatility.
Interactive Question: Is your current position bullish or bearish? Feel free to share your views in the comments section.
