“Who is harvesting our hard-earned money behind the crash? The despair of retail investors is nothing but the carnival of whales!”
Bring the topic:#Thetruth about the bitcoin crash##Survivalguide for retail investors##2025coincircle winter##Highleverage liquidation warning#
“It’s falling again! Text messages about account liquidation come one after another, but do you really know who is manipulating this ‘massacre’?”
Today is April 16, 2025. The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000, with a 24-hour drop of more than 1%. Ethereum has shrunk to around $1,600, and altcoins are bleeding. Countless retail investors are struggling in a cycle of covering positions, liquidation, and selling at a loss. This seemingly accidental plunge is actually a "harvest bureau" carefully planned by institutions and whales.
1. The truth behind the crash: tears of retail investors and chips of whales
Institutions sell, retail investors take over
The latest report from JPMorgan Chase pointed out that retail investors are the main force behind the recent decline in Bitcoin. Since April, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have been net outflows, retail investors panic selling after chasing high prices, while institutions quietly reduced their positions as early as March9. Even more ironic is that data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that whales (holding more than 1,000 BTC) had already sold out before the plunge, while small and medium-sized retail investors frantically bought at the bottom and became "taker"7.
Policy Black Swan: The Double Strangulation of Tariffs and Regulation
On April 3, the Trump administration announced a 25% auto tariff and a 20% general tariff, causing global risk assets to fall. Bitcoin, as a highly volatile asset, was the first to be affected. Mining companies’ costs surged, and the computing power of the entire network may drop by 20%, further exacerbating the selling pressure5. Even more fatal is that the US SEC’s indifferent attitude towards Bitcoin ETFs has completely dashed the “good regulatory benefits” expected by retail investors13.
Death spiral under leverage carnival
Data shows that in the past 24 hours, short positions worth $637 million were at risk of liquidation6, and 80% of the retail investors who bought the bottom on the evening of the 22nd used 20-50 times leverage. When the price fell below the key support level, a series of liquidations triggered a "long kills long" and market liquidity evaporated in an instant, leaving only a mess110.
2. Survival rules for retail investors: Refuse to be “fuel” and learn to adjust the sails in the storm
Compress altcoin positions and use BTC as a shield
According to the data from Bishengtuan, by 2025, institutions will hold more than 520,000 BTC, while 80% of retail investors’ assets are trapped in altcoins. The total market value of altcoins has shrunk by 77% from its peak, and the selling pressure from the lifting of restrictions and the issuance of new coins have formed a "death spiral"5. If retail investors want to survive, they need to reduce their altcoin holdings to less than 20%, focusing on BTC and ETH57.
Beware of high leverage and learn to hedge with options
The recent market is dominated by "oscillation + pin", and stop-profit and stop-loss are the bottom line for survival. You can refer to selling a straddle option combination of 84,000-86,000 US dollars to harvest the volatility premium and avoid unilateral liquidation5.
Pay attention to on-chain signals and stay away from emotional traps
Glassnode data shows that the Bitcoin reserve risk index has fallen below the bull market threshold (0.012), and miners sold 15,000 BTC in a single day, suggesting that short-term risks have not been eliminated24. Retail investors need to keep a close eye on the Coinbase premium rate and institutional capital flows to avoid being misled by "bottom-fishing slogans"6.
3. The darkness before dawn: Is there still hope in the second half of 2025?
Although Coinbase warned that a "crypto winter" might be coming4, historical experience shows that a sharp drop is often followed by a violent rebound. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the ETH spot ETF is approved, the market may reappear in 2023.5. Only by surviving can you be qualified to witness the next bull market!
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