WTO Flags Fragile Trade Outlook for 2025 — Services Hold Steady, But Risks Loom Large

The World Trade Organization has just released a sobering update: while a temporary pause in tariffs has helped soften the blow, global merchandise trade is still on track to decline by 0.2% in 2025.

📉 Key Takeaways:

North America faces the sharpest contraction, with exports projected to drop by 12.6%.

If “reciprocal” tariffs and broader policy uncertainty escalate, the fall in global goods trade could deepen to 1.5%.

This scenario would be especially damaging for export-reliant least-developed countries (LDCs).

📈 On a more positive note, the #WTO has introduced services trade forecasts for the first time:

Services trade is expected to grow by 4.0% in 2025 — still solid, though 1 percentage point below earlier expectations.

The bottom line? Trade tensions may be cooling slightly, but the system remains fragile. A misstep on tariffs or global policy could quickly tip the scales.