Predicting when the stock market will return to a bull market or continue in a bear market is a complex issue, as the stock market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, policy adjustments, market sentiment, and more. Based on historical data and expert analysis, the A-share market indeed exhibits a cyclical characteristic of alternating bull and bear markets, but the specific timing of each bull-bear transition is difficult to predict accurately. #Metaplanet增持比特币

1. Historical Bull-Bear Cycles:

• The A-share market has experienced ten bear markets in its history, and is currently in the eleventh round of a bear market.

• Among the first ten bear markets, the longest lasted for more than four years.

• The current bear market began in June 2015 and has lasted more than four years, approaching the historical longest cycle.

• The duration of bull markets has gradually shortened, while bear market cycles have lengthened. #Metaplanet增持比特币

2. Current Market Conditions:

• Although the index is at 2800 points, the actual level may be lower, close to the valuation bottom.

• A policy bottom has emerged, and the market may be in a bottom area.

• There is a lack of significant improvement in fundamental factors, such as new stock issuances, adjustments to stamp duty, etc.

3. Conditions for Bull Market Return:

• The market needs positive changes in fundamentals, such as economic recovery and improvement in corporate profits.

• On the policy front, there may need to be more substantial favorable measures, such as stamp duty reductions and restrictions on shareholder sell-offs.

• The introduction of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has brought new opportunities, but in the short term, it may divert funds and increase market uncertainty.

4. Uncertain Factors:

• Cyclical economic adjustments may affect corporate profits and market confidence.

• The effectiveness of technological innovation and policy reforms needs time for verification.

• The global economic environment and international situation also have a significant impact on A-shares. In summary, although the current market may be in a bottom area, the return of the bull market still requires improvements in fundamentals and further support from policies. Investors should remain patient, pay attention to market dynamics, and manage risks well.

If you want to seize this round of the bull market, it is definitely too late to learn on the spot; it is best to have someone guide you to quickly get started.