Binance News
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Bitcoin's Death Cross: Historical Patterns and Market Implications
According to BlockBeats, Bitcoin experienced a 'death cross' on April 6, where the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average on the daily chart. Historically, this technical pattern is often associated with trend reversals and prolonged bearish trading periods, sometimes indicating significant market downturns.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has undergone ten such 'death crosses,' with the eleventh currently unfolding. Analyzing the dates and durations of these events reveals a crucial insight: while every bear market includes a 'death cross,' not every 'death cross' leads to a bear market. This distinction is vital for understanding the current market landscape.
Notably, the 'death crosses' during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were prolonged and challenging, lasting between 9 to 13 months from the crossover date to the cycle's bottom, with declines ranging from 55% to 68%.
The other seven occurrences were far less severe, lasting between 1.5 to 3.5 months, with Bitcoin's price dropping from 27% to no decline at all. In many instances, these signals marked local bottoms, followed by subsequent rebounds.
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, noted that, on average, Bitcoin's price is only slightly lower (-3.2%) one month after a death cross, and typically rises three months later. Therefore, he suggests that a 'death cross' often presents a good buying opportunity.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has undergone ten such 'death crosses,' with the eleventh currently unfolding. Analyzing the dates and durations of these events reveals a crucial insight: while every bear market includes a 'death cross,' not every 'death cross' leads to a bear market. This distinction is vital for understanding the current market landscape.
Notably, the 'death crosses' during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were prolonged and challenging, lasting between 9 to 13 months from the crossover date to the cycle's bottom, with declines ranging from 55% to 68%.
The other seven occurrences were far less severe, lasting between 1.5 to 3.5 months, with Bitcoin's price dropping from 27% to no decline at all. In many instances, these signals marked local bottoms, followed by subsequent rebounds.
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, noted that, on average, Bitcoin's price is only slightly lower (-3.2%) one month after a death cross, and typically rises three months later. Therefore, he suggests that a 'death cross' often presents a good buying opportunity.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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