Bitcoin Breaks Trend: Record High Long/Short – Up to $90,000 or Drop?

Based on the Long/Short data of Bitcoin (BTC) in the image, we see the liquidation ratio (rekt) heavily skewed towards Longs across timeframes:

- 1H: Long $1.9M vs Short $83K (Long/Short ratio ~22.9:1)

- 4H: Long $10.3M vs Short $138.7K (ratio ~74.3:1)

- 12H: Long $29.8M vs Short $8.7M (ratio ~3.4:1)

- 24H: Long $30.8M vs Short $24.7M (ratio ~1.25:1)

Market scenario analysis:

1. Market sentiment is overly optimistic (Over-Leveraged Longs): The ratio of Long liquidations overwhelmingly surpasses Shorts, especially on the 1H and 4H timeframes, indicating that many traders have placed Long orders with high leverage, expecting a strong price increase. However, significant liquidation of Long positions is often a sign of a short-term correction or price drop when the market is 'hunting stop-losses' of Long positions.

2. Common scenario:

- Short-term price drop: With a large number of Long positions being liquidated, selling pressure may increase as Long traders are forced to exit their positions, temporarily driving the BTC price down. This often occurs when the market wants to 'cleanse' high-leverage positions.

- Accumulation or reversal: After the liquidation, if the price touches important support zones, the market may stabilize and accumulate before continuing the upward trend (as expected at $90,000 that you mentioned). However, if selling pressure from liquidations persists, the price may drop further.

3. Note: Data shows that in the past 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $208.63M, with the largest liquidation on Binance-ETH ($2.78M). This indicates that liquidation pressure is not only concentrated in BTC but has also spread to altcoins, signaling a period of high volatility across the market.

Conclusion: The most likely scenario is that the BTC price will experience a short-term correction due to pressure from the liquidation of Long positions. Traders should exercise caution, monitor important support levels, and trading volume to determine a safe entry point, especially if expecting a price recovery to $90,000.