Marie Poteriaieva's analysis of $BTC :
Bitcoin's Death Cross remains present even after rising to $86,000—Should BTC traders be worried?
Bitcoin's recent price increase has drawn attention back, but the confirmed death cross could be a warning for traders.
On April 6, the price of Bitcoin formed a death cross on the daily chart—a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. Traditionally, this concerning signal is often accompanied by a trend reversal and prolonged bearish trading periods, sometimes foreshadowing significant market downturns.
The latest death cross appears against the backdrop of increasing macroeconomic instability. Stocks are reeling from what seems to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin's death cross could be the final blow to hopes for a short-term price increase. Early signs of capitulation from short-term holders may have already emerged.
However, not everyone sees a dark future.
The death of Bitcoin has entered history.
By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA falls below the 200-day MA, it indicates that recent price action has weakened relative to the long-term trend. Its counterpart, a golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens—usually signaling a new bullish phase.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th occurring right now. Analyzing their dates and times will reveal an important insight: every bear market includes a death cross, but not every death cross leads to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the reset.
Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: the ones that happen in bear markets and the other type. The three death crosses that formed in the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were all long and painful. They lasted from 9 to 13 months and witnessed declines from 55% to 68% from the crossover date to the cycle bottom.
The remaining seven phases are much less severe. They last from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and witness Bitcoin dropping from 27% to nothing. In many cases, these signals mark local bottoms followed by new price increases.
This brings us to an important question: Has Bitcoin entered a bear market, or is this just another bear trap?
A bearish signal?
If Bitcoin is indeed in a bear price territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes, then the current death cross could signal a price decline over the next 6 to 12 months. This outlook aligns with his observation of the gap between the current market capitalization and the realized capitalization (average cost basis per wallet x amount of BTC held).
If Realized Capitalization is rising while Market Capitalization is stagnant or declining, it means that capital is flowing in but prices are not increasing—a typical bearish signal.
Ki Young Ju further states that the current data clearly indicates the following.
The selling pressure could ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months—therefore, a short-term price increase seems unlikely.
Growth rate differential of BTC. Source: CryptoQuant
Other market participants are not noticing the presence of the death cross. Cryptocurrency analyst Mister Crypto argues that the current death cross is a setup for a price increase rather than a downturn. "The trap has been set again. This will be the most hated price increase of 2025!" he posted along with a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.
Butterfill's data shows that, on average, Bitcoin's price only drops slightly one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and typically rises higher after three months.
Did Trump's tariffs ignite the idea that Bitcoin could outlast the US dollar?
Interestingly, Bitcoin is not the only asset sending warning signals. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death cross, while individual tech stocks—including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet—have triggered them or are about to do so.
Bitcoin's recent movement is part of a larger market reset process, whether good or bad. However, currently, it leans more towards the 'worse': as some analysts point out, what is bad for Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin as well. Of course, unless Bitcoin completely asserts its role as digital gold.
