Comprehensive analysis of the latest U.S. tariff policy in 2025 and its impact on the Bitcoin market:
I. Key points of the latest U.S. tariff policy
1. Core content of the policy
- Reciprocal tariff system: On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced 'minimum benchmark tariffs' and 'reciprocal tariffs' on numerous countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%, such as 34% for China, 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia, 20% for the EU, and 24% for Japan.
- Implementation time: The benchmark tariffs took effect on April 5, and reciprocal tariffs took effect on April 9, but some exemption clauses apply to specific goods such as semiconductors and critical minerals.
- Additional tariffs on Chinese goods: Previously, on February 4, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and eliminated the small-value tax exemption policy, leading to a comprehensive tax rate on Chinese exports to the U.S. of up to 35%.
2. Exemptions and exceptions
- Exemption scope includes humanitarian materials, informational materials, and some semiconductor products, but mainstream mining machine chip models are not included in the exemption list.
- If a product contains no less than 20% 'American components', it can be exempted from reciprocal tariffs, but mining machine manufacturers find it difficult to meet this condition due to reliance on overseas supply chains.
II. Severe volatility in the Bitcoin market
1. Price trends
- In January 2025, Bitcoin reached a high of $109,000, but due to the impact of tariff policies, it fell to $74,000 in early April, a drop of 32%.
- Policy uncertainty leads to short-term fluctuations, for instance, in late March, the expectation of tariff exemptions caused a rebound to $89,000, but after the policy was implemented on April 2, it fell again.
2. Market reaction factors
- Weakening safe-haven properties: Correlation with traditional assets has risen to 0.78, while gold rose 23% during the same period, Bitcoin fell 28%, indicating its safe-haven function has been weakened.
- Withdrawal of leveraged funds: BitMEX data shows that open interest in February futures contracts decreased by 37%, as investors reduced leverage positions due to policy risks.
III. Impact on cryptocurrency mining
1. Rising cost of mining machines
- The U.S. accounts for over 40% of global computing power, but mining machines rely on imports (mainly from China and Southeast Asia), with high tariffs increasing import costs by 18%.
- Miner profits under dual pressure: The decline in Bitcoin prices combined with the rising prices of mining machines puts some mining operations at risk of closure.
2. Coping strategies
- Second-hand mining machine trading: Domestic second-hand mining machine transactions in the U.S. avoid tariffs, but are outdated and have large price fluctuations.
- Localization of production: Attempting to increase the proportion of 'American components' by procuring domestic chips (such as TSMC's Arizona plant) or through technology licensing to secure exemptions.
IV. Policy uncertainty and international countermeasures
1. Escalation of U.S.-China competition
- On April 11, China raised tariffs on U.S. imports from 84% to 125%, stating that 'there is no market acceptance possibility for U.S. goods exported to China.'
- The U.S. plans to launch a Section 232 investigation into semiconductors, which may lead to further tariffs as trade frictions continue to escalate.
2. Compromise and games among other countries
- Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia have proposed reducing tariffs on the U.S. in exchange for exemptions, but the overall tariff negotiations remain disordered.
V. Long-term impacts and market transformation
1. Increased policy sensitivity: The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has exceeded 0.7, indicating its gradual integration into the mainstream financial system, but it is more significantly affected by policy disruptions.
2. End of regulatory arbitrage: The U.S. Treasury has frozen $1.2 billion of on-chain assets suspected of tariff evasion, increasing compliance pressure in the cryptocurrency industry.
3. New developments from the White House: White House officials stated that tariff revenues may be used to purchase Bitcoin, though details were not specified, it injects short-term speculative expectations into the market.
The U.S. tariff policy profoundly reshapes the cryptocurrency industry landscape by raising mining machine costs, exacerbating market volatility, and strengthening regulatory constraints. In the short term, miners need to seek cost optimization paths (such as second-hand equipment or localized production); in the long term, they need to adapt to the deep binding with policies and the mainstream financial system. Future escalations in U.S.-China trade frictions and U.S. semiconductor tariff trends remain key risk points.