There are currently two key signals in the market
Firstly, there are signs of easing in the US-China auto and parts tariff negotiations, with the most stringent proposals from April likely shelved. Tariff pressures will gradually lessen, but economic resilience may delay the Fed's rate cuts. The GDP data at the end of April is crucial for validating the June rate cut expectations.
Secondly, the altcoin market is in a balance of bulls and bears. The weekly candlestick shows that the altcoin market capitalization exchange rate is at a critical point for a trend reversal. Although there is a 22% downside risk, positive factors are also accumulating: Bitcoin shows signs of bottoming out on a weekly basis, and if a historical rebound repeats, altcoins may follow suit; most altcoins have undergone deep corrections, with many holders deeply trapped or exiting, leading to a basic clearing of pessimistic sentiment.
Entering the market now, even with misjudgments, a 5% stop-loss margin is relatively easy to manage. Coupled with the easing of trade frictions and the Fed's balance sheet expansion bringing improved liquidity expectations, if a global easing cycle begins, altcoins are expected to achieve excess returns.
It is recommended to gradually focus on two types of assets: strong coins that outperform BTC and newly launched projects, controlling risk exposure and positioning for potential rebound opportunities.
The four major altcoins soaring 100 times is the bull market's barometer!
SSV
The SSV protocol maintains strength in the market downturn due to its positioning as a core infrastructure for staking Ethereum. Supporting factors include stable income, technological architecture upgrades, and public support from Vitalik, showcasing significant ecological advantages.
MKR
MKR, as a long-established project in the DeFi field, has a solid foundation. It is the core support of the DAI stablecoin and benefits from the development of the ETH ecosystem. Currently, ETH's TVL has reached $47 billion, driving demand for DAI collateral.
MakerDAO is advancing the 'endgame plan', expanding DAI to chains like Solana and Sui, attempting to capture market share from USDT. Additionally, MKR's buyback and burn mechanism (which has already burned $130 million this year) is driving up the token price. However, one must be wary of the strict regulatory risks faced by stablecoins.
AAVE
AAVE is a leading project in the lending field, consistently ranking among the top three in TVL on ETH. Despite having only 300,000 daily active addresses, it is favored by large holders and institutions for leveraged operations.
Its latest V4 version supports cross-chain collateral, allowing Bitcoin to be used as collateral while also laying out RWA, tokenizing US Treasury bonds on-chain and entering the traditional financial sector. However, if the overall DeFi market cools down, AAVE's lending volume will decline, and fee income will be affected.
SUI
SUI, as a rising public chain, performs outstandingly with a TVL of $1.13 billion, ranking among the top seven in on-chain assets locked. It features 'instant confirmation + ultra-low Gas fees', making it very suitable for gaming and social DApps.
Recently, SUI partnered with South Korean gaming giant Nexon to attract traditional gamers into the blockchain gaming space, which is expected to stimulate ecological vitality. Sui's Move language is safer than Solidity, attracting many former Aptos developers. However, the new chain faces the challenge of being siphoned off users by older chains, and user retention remains to be observed.
