🌟 Cryptocurrency Market Daily | April 15, 2025 🌟

I. Core Asset Performance: BTC's Resilience Highlighted, ETH/SOL Divergence Intensifies

1. $BTC: $70,000-$80,000 becomes the new consensus range

- 🛡️ Strengthened Anti-Drop Properties: The market generally considers $70,000 to be the 'iron bottom', with whales withdrawing 2,372 BTC (approximately $201 million) from CEX within 8 hours, indicating long-term holding confidence;

- 📊 Decreased Volatility: Weekly amplitude shrank to 8% (historical low), with derivatives open interest down 25% month-over-month, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term but disproving zero expectations.

2. $ETH: Weak Pattern Unchanged, Staking ETF Encounters Obstacles

- 📉 Asymmetric Price Fluctuations: Weekly gains are only 1/3 of BTC's, but the declines are more pronounced (e.g., yesterday's adjustment of 3.5% vs BTC's 1.8%). The SEC has delayed the approval of Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF staking function, leading to continued outflow of ecosystem funds;

- 🔄 Waiting for Catalysts: Users on L2 network Abstract surged by 130%, but the $BIG token plummeted 80% from its highs, reflecting caution in the market towards short-term speculative hype.

3. $SOL: Staking ETF Promotes Ecological Prosperity

- 🚀 Canadian Spot ETF Launch: This week, the first Solana ETF supporting staking was launched (annualized yield of 6%-8%), combined with expectations of applications from major U.S. institutions (Fidelity, VanEck, etc.), leading to price volatility expanding to 20% (BTC at 12% during the same period);

- 🔗 On-chain Data Support: TVL surpassed $5.5 billion (30% monthly increase), but the founder of DeFiance Capital warns that 'the project team colluding with market makers to manipulate prices' poses a systemic risk.

II. Regulation and Policy: Deepening Games and Liquidity Challenges

1. SEC Regulatory Dynamics

- ⏳ Normalization of Review Delays: Extended deadlines for three proposals regarding changes to cryptocurrency exchange rules (including custody and compliance for market makers), Grayscale's ETH staking ETF encountering obstacles reflects the regulatory dilemma for 'decentralized assets';

- 🌐 Global Compliance Race: Canada’s Solana ETF's first-mover advantage may compel the U.S. to accelerate approvals. Kraken launches U.S. stock/ETF trading services, speeding up the integration of traditional finance and crypto.

2. Macroeconomic Disturbances

- 📉 Employment Market Warning: The Fed's spokesperson states that the probability of rising unemployment over the next 12 months reaches a new cycle high. A Galaxy report shows that CeFi loan volumes have dropped 68% from their peak, putting pressure on industry liquidity;

- 💶 Changes in Stablecoin Landscape: Circle issues Euro stablecoin EURC, reaching a new supply high, potentially capturing USDT's market share in Europe.

III. Risks and Opportunities: Security Incidents and Narrative Shifts

1. Frequent Security Vulnerabilities

- 💥 KiloEx Hacking Incident: Perpetual contract DEX was attacked, resulting in a loss of $7.5 million. The TGE exposed risk management deficiencies in less than a month, putting pressure on DeFi insurance protocols;

- ⚠️ Market Manipulation Accusations: The founder of DeFiance Capital accuses project teams of colluding with market makers to manipulate prices, exacerbating the trust crisis in small and mid-cap tokens.

2. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows

- 😨 Low Fear Index: Today's value is 38 (0-100), remaining in the 'fear zone' for 15 consecutive days, but whale accumulation and institutional product innovations (like staking ETFs) may foster a reversal;

- 🌍 Geopolitical Variables: The Trump family deepens its crypto layout (Eric Trump attends TOKEN2049), and policy games may become the main line of the market in the second half of the year.

📌 Core Conclusion: The market has entered a 'low volatility - high differentiation' phase, with BTC becoming the liquidity anchor, SOL breaking through with the staking ETF narrative, and ETH awaiting regulatory breakthroughs; be vigilant about security incidents and liquidity risks in the short term, while paying attention to compliance and geopolitical variables in the long term.