As of now, Bitcoin is trading around 85,000, neither breaking out nor effectively breaking down further. Both upward and downward movements are possible, which is why I refer to it as a fifty-fifty market. Here, whether asserting an upward or downward movement, there are grounds for both, but also uncertainty.

In this situation, I choose to maintain a light position or trade less to avoid the probability of losses.

From a medium-term perspective, I believe there will be a higher peak in April, close to the 887 range. Whether it effectively breaks through 887 will determine if the trend has reversed. If the peak in April breaks through 887, I think the possibility of 745 being the major low for the medium-term adjustment will greatly increase. If the peak in April cannot break through 887, then the possibility of a retracement breaking below 745 again at the end of April or early May is very high.

In other words, whether the low on April 7 corresponds to the absolute low on August 5 of last year, we can use the price of the April peak to make our judgment.