$BTC

The temporary tariff exemption on technological products and the threats of new tariffs from Trump create uncertainty in the markets, which could influence Bitcoin in three key ways:

1. Short-term volatility: Political confusion —announced exemptions vs. Trump's warnings— keeps tension in global markets. Bitcoin, historically correlated with indices like the Nasdaq, could experience fluctuations if instability in tech stocks persists, although its coupling has diminished due to the participation of institutional investors.

2. Demand as a safe haven: If the trade war escalates, China could devalue the yuan, incentivizing its citizens to seek alternatives like Bitcoin, as occurred in 2017-2018. Additionally, a possible global recession would drive economic stimulus, increasing liquidity that typically benefits cryptocurrencies.

3. Impact on mining: Specific tariffs on semiconductors (announced for 1-2 months from now) would raise the costs of mining hardware, affecting the profitability of the sector, especially after the recent halving.

In summary, Bitcoin faces mixed pressures: operational risks for miners and immediate volatility, but upside potential as a safe-haven asset if trade or monetary tensions worsen.