Market Analysis: BTC and the US Stock Market Outlook
The market remains elusive, and tonight's US stock market performance will be a key factor in determining the next major move for BTC.
My core view remains unchanged:
If BTC drops below 86,000, it will trigger a significant downward trend. However, strong support around the 83,000 level has not been broken yet. What happens next depends heavily on how the US stock market performs tonight.
Two Scenarios Could Play Out:
1. Bearish Scenario (Weak US Stock Market):
If the US stock market performs poorly tonight, then 86,000 will likely mark the top, and BTC will start to decline.
In this case, our shorting strategy remains correct. As I mentioned during yesterday’s live broadcast, shorting near 86,000 was the right move — those who followed should already be in profit.
2. Bullish Scenario (Strong US Stock Market):
If the market surges tonight, BTC could break above 86,100, targeting the 88,000–89,000 range.
In that scenario, we will switch from short to long positions accordingly.
Intraday Strategy:
Daytime: Continue to short around the 86,000 level.
Evening (before US market opens): Stay in cash and observe.
If there's no sign of a breakout, resume shorting.
If a breakout seems likely, flip to long positions.
Final Outlook:
Regardless of the path taken, I believe a major correction is inevitable.
In the first case, BTC drops directly after failing to break 86,000.
In the second, there may be a brief push to 88,000–89,000 before a steep decline begins.
It all comes down to the decisions of the market's key players.
