#美国半导体关税 Summary from last week:
Last week, 'shorting America' almost became a global consensus, highlighted by a surge in U.S. sovereign credit risk. Less than 13 hours after Trump announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, he suddenly reversed course, delaying the highest tariffs on over 75 countries for 90 days, despite previously insisting he would 'never consider a suspension.' The White House also refuted claims that this was 'fake news.'
Due to the Trump's administration's flip-flopping on import tariffs, market panic escalated, and U.S. stocks continued to fall on Friday after the University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence deteriorating and inflation expectations soaring. However, with the Federal Reserve's voting member Collins stating they are 'absolutely' prepared to help stabilize the market if necessary, and a malfunction in the U.S. tariff declaration system, all three major stock indices gained some respite, recording the best single-week performance in over a year following a midweek reversal.
As the tariff indicator swings back and forth in the 850-750 range, the grinding rhythm continues.
Current situation of the Federal Reserve
The one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan is 6.7%, the highest level since 1981. Traders have lowered their bets on Fed rate cuts, expecting three cuts in 2025, the first of which will begin in June.
Federal Reserve's Collins: It is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period; if necessary, the Federal Reserve is 'absolutely' ready to help stabilize the market; Kashkari: No serious chaos has been seen yet, and the Federal Reserve should only intervene cautiously in truly urgent situations; Musallam: The Federal Reserve should be wary of sustained inflation driven by tariffs.
Latest developments on tariffs:
The EU Trade Commissioner went to Washington for negotiations on Sunday; EU Commission officials: If no agreement can be reached with the U.S., the EU will take countermeasures.
The UK will suspend tariffs on 89 products.
Musk again 'challenges' Trump's government decisions: Cutting the space science budget is concerning.
Sources: Vietnam hopes the U.S. will reduce reciprocal tariffs from 46% to 22%-28%.
A major turnaround in tariffs! The plot twists again
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced on the evening of the 11th that the federal government has agreed to exempt electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips from the so-called 'reciprocal tariffs.' Documents released by Customs and Border Protection show that these products are excluded from the so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' imposed on trade partners by the government.
This marks a '180-degree turnaround' in U.S. government tariff policy. This is also the second adjustment to related policies since the U.S. temporarily delayed imposing high 'reciprocal tariffs' on some trading partners on April 10. Where there is one and two, there will be three; continue to pay attention to subsequent tariff policies.
Trump's tariff measures have seen a series of reversals, leading to a massive sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market valued at $29 trillion last week.
His remarks will increase uncertainty for businesses regarding Trump's tariff measures. The recent market indicators all depend on the performance of Americans; it’s really nauseating. When the U.S. announces tariffs, the market starts to fall, and when they say they will delay for 90 days, it starts to rise, pulling back and forth, draining the public's blood.
Now they are coming up with this exemption again, and all the exempted categories are because they rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing. If they keep this unpredictable behavior up, and continue this way, the market will gradually get used to it and will no longer pay the price.
