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—Medium to Long-term Trend Analysis Resonating with Technical and Macroeconomic Factors Date: April 14, 2025
1. Multi-dimensional Analysis of Technical Indicators
1. Trend and Momentum Indicators
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF: -0.00034 (below the zero axis)
DEA: -0.00045 (death cross continues, green bars expanding)
Conclusion: Currently, short-term bearish momentum is strong, and MACD indicates that market downward pressure remains. If DIF and DEA continue to expand, prices may decline further.
EMA Combination:
EMA30: $84,500
EMA200: $72,000
Conclusion: The current price is between EMA30 and EMA200, and the breakout direction has not yet been confirmed in the short term. If the price breaks below the EMA30 support level (approximately $84,000), it may test the EMA200 area (approximately $72,000).
2. Oscillation and Volume Indicators
KDJ (9,3,3):
K Value: 21 (close to oversold area)
D Value: 24 (bearish arrangement)
J Value: 19 (extremely low level, short-term rebound demand increases)
Conclusion: The KDJ indicator is in the oversold area, suggesting short-term rebound demand. If a golden cross occurs in the short term, it may push prices upward.
Bollinger Band (20,2):
Middle Track: $85,000
Upper and Lower Tracks: 82,000/90,000
Conclusion: Prices are close to the Bollinger Band lower track; if they continue to decline, they may test the Bollinger Band lower track support level. If they break through the upper track, they may further break through to the $90,000 range.
RSI (14 days): 44
Conclusion: The current RSI value is in the neutral bearish area, not yet entering the oversold or overbought zone. If RSI falls below 40, it may confirm that bearish momentum remains strong.
Trading Volume: The trading volume in the past 24 hours was $3.5 billion, an increase of 3% compared to the previous day, indicating a recovery in market participation.
3. Special Indicators
TD Sequence: Currently at count 8, close to a potential reversal point. If confirmed by consecutive closes, it may trigger a trend reversal signal.
AO (Momentum Oscillator): The current histogram is blue (negative value), bearish momentum is weakening but remains in the downward range.
2. Key Support and Resistance
Type Price Range Logical Basis Strong Support $82,000 Bollinger Band lower track, previous low point, psychological barrier Secondary Support $75,000 EMA200 support level, historically dense trading area Core Resistance $85,000 Bollinger Band middle track, EMA30 support level Strong Resistance $90,000 upward pressure, historical high point, may face profit-taking
3. Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors Analysis
1. Market Sentiment
Fear/Greed Index: Current market sentiment leans towards the 'Fear' range (value of 30). The market lacks obvious confidence, and investors are in a cautious wait-and-see state. This may indicate that the market is still in a state of oscillation in the short term, but if fear sentiment is excessively amplified, it may bring rebound opportunities.
2. Policies of Various Countries and Macroeconomic Factors
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve plans to adjust monetary policy around May 2025, likely based on economic growth and inflation conditions to decide whether to raise rates further. If the Federal Reserve maintains a rate hike stance, risk assets may face downward pressure, and BTC may also be affected.
China Policy: China's regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming more lenient; in 2025, the Chinese government will strengthen support for blockchain technology to promote the legalization of digital assets. If China continues to relax cryptocurrency regulations, it may have a positive impact on BTC demand.
Global Inflation Data: The release of inflation data from various countries will further affect market sentiment in 2025. If global inflation remains high, BTC, as one of the hedging assets against inflation, may receive support from capital inflows.
ETF Applications and Institutional Capital Inflows: BTC's ETF applications remain a focal point for the market. If the ETF is approved, more institutional capital will enter the market, driving up BTC prices.
4. Future Trend Projection for the Next Month
Scenario 1: Continued Rise (Probability 45%)
Trigger Conditions:
If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish policy, global economic data supports risk assets, BTC breaks through $85,000, and trading volume increases.
Target Price: (Key resistance), look towards 90,000 (key resistance) after breaking through, then towards 95,000-$100,000.
Risk Factors: US CPI data exceeds expectations, market risk aversion sentiment rises.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Probability 40%)
Trigger Conditions:
BTC price oscillates in the 82,000−85,000 range, with trading volume remaining low.
Market sentiment has not improved, and market participants are in a wait-and-see mood.
Target Price: Oscillating in the 80,000−85,000 range; choose direction after breaking through.
Scenario 3: Downward Risk (Probability 15%)
Trigger Conditions:
BTC falls below $82,000, MACD green bars increase, RSI falls below 40.
Global economy faces greater pressure, with the Federal Reserve raising rates or poor economic data from various countries.
Target Price: (Support level), if broken, will test 75,000 (EMA200 support level); if broken, will test 70,000.
5. Operational Strategies and Risk Control
Long Position Strategy:
Entry: Gradually build positions in the 82,000−83,000 range.
Stop Loss: $80,000.
Target: 85,000−90,000.
Short Position Strategy:
Entry: Short positions under pressure in the 85,000−86,000 range.
Stop Loss: $87,000.
Target: 82,000−80,000.
Risk Control Strategy:
Reduce Positions: If prices continue to pull back to the support range, it is advisable to reduce positions to avoid significant drawdowns.
Stop Loss: Immediately stop loss when prices break below key support levels to control risk.
6. Comprehensive Conclusion
BTC's trend over the next month will be influenced by market sentiment, macroeconomic policies, and technical indicators. In the short term, BTC may oscillate in the 82,000−85,000 range, but after breaking through, it is expected to challenge the strong resistance level of $90,000. Market sentiment and global economic policies will be important factors determining BTC's future trend.
