The term "Black Swan" refers to events or occurrences that are highly unexpected, have a major impact, and often can only be explained retrospectively after they happen. This concept was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007). The term is inspired by the old assumption in the Western world that all swans are white until the discovery of black swans in Australia, which shows that something thought impossible can indeed happen.
Key characteristics of Black Swans:
Highly Unexpected: This event is outside of normal expectations and cannot be predicted based on previous data or experiences.
Significant Impact: Black Swans have substantial consequences, both positive and negative, that can change systems, markets, or societies.
Retrospective Explanation: After an event occurs, people tend to rationalize it as if it could have been predicted, even though no one saw it coming beforehand.
Examples of Black Swans:
Global Financial Crisis 2008: The collapse of financial markets due to the property bubble in the U.S. was not predicted by most economists and analysts.
COVID-19 Pandemic: The emergence and rapid spread of the coronavirus in 2019-2020 shocked the world and had a significant impact on the economy, health, and daily life.
September 11, 2001: The terrorist attacks in the U.S. that led to the collapse of the World Trade Center towers were previously unthinkable events with global impact.
Relevance of the Black Swan Concept:
Taleb emphasizes that humans often underestimate the likelihood of extreme events due to the tendency to rely on historical patterns or limited predictive models. In business, investment, or everyday life, this concept teaches the importance of preparing for uncertainty and building resilience against unexpected events.
