🚨 【Bitcoin Volatility Warning｜Cryptocurrency Market Game Under Policy Fog】 🚨

🔥 Matrixport's Latest On-Chain Data Interpretation: Despite the pause in the impact of China-U.S. tariffs, Trump's policy swings continue to disrupt the market, and the implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin remains high at 68% historical percentile!

📊 Core Data Breakdown

1️⃣ Excessive Volatility Premium:

- Current IV is 10-12 points higher than the "no event calm period" benchmark

- Compared to the Q1 2025 low point (49%), it has surged nearly 20 points

📌 Comparative Reference: The IV premium before the 2022 LUNA collapse was only 60% of the current level

2️⃣ Options Market Anomalies:

- The open interest of Bitcoin put options expiring at the end of April surged by 37%

- The open interest for puts with a strike price of $75,000 exceeded 12,000 BTC (approximately $900 million)

💡 Matrixport Model Shows: If Trump releases a clear policy signal before April 20, IV might drop to 55%-58%; if he continues to make ambiguous statements, IV could break through the 75% threshold (approaching the liquidity crisis level of March 2020).

💡 In-Depth Insight:

The market is pricing in a "black swan nested gray rhino"—both to guard against Trump's sudden policy shifts and to cope with the deep binding risks of cryptocurrency regulation and the international trade system. Traders at this moment should act like "volatility surfers," leveraging high IV for excess returns while strictly adhering to stop-losses to prevent a backlash from massive waves.