On April 13, 2025, the USDX index fell below 100, specifically from 110.15 on January 13, 2025, to 99.12 on April 11, 2025 (according to #FXCE ), indicating a weakening of the USD against major currencies such as EUR and Yen. At the same time, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 4.4%, reflecting concerns about trade wars and decreased demand for bonds.


Impact Analysis


  • Fed rate cut expectations: The drop of #USDX below 100 indicates that investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in the near future to stimulate the economy, especially as the U.S.-China trade war escalates (the U.S. imposes a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, according to previous articles). A weaker USD often creates opportunities for assets like gold and crypto to appreciate. The price of Bitcoin is currently stable at $79,000, while gold rose 2% in the past week (according to information from the web), demonstrating this trend.


  • Rising bond yields: The yield on 10-year bonds rising above 4.4% indicates that investors are selling long-term bonds due to concerns about the U.S. government borrowing more or decreased demand for bonds because of the trade war. This puts pressure on high-growth stocks, especially in the tech sector like Apple and Tesla, which have high levels of debt and are sensitive to interest rates. The Nasdaq index fell 1.5% last week (according to information from the web), reflecting cautious sentiment.


  • Positive impact on crypto: A weakening USD is a significant driver for the crypto market, with capital potentially flowing into digital assets as a safe haven.



Conclusion

The weakening of the USDX (down to 99.12) and rising bond yields above 4.4% are creating a multifaceted financial landscape. Crypto and gold benefit from a weak USD, while U.S. tech stocks face pressure from rising yields. Investors need to closely monitor the Fed's movements and global trade developments to adjust their strategies accordingly.


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