Incredible Analysis! If Munger were alive, he would criticize Trump's tariffs: Self-destructive economy or shooting oneself in the foot?
Charlie Munger's Perspective: Trump's tariff policy is fundamentally wrong!
Trump's Character Called into Question
Munger once criticized Trump as 'vain and ostentatious'. His tariff policy is a high-profile show, blaming China for 'stealing jobs', but in reality, it incites emotions, lacks rational analysis, and is contrary to Munger's pragmatic ideals.
Economic Logic Full of Flaws
The Truth About Trade Deficits: Munger believes that the root cause of the deficit is the low savings rate in the U.S., not China's fault. Tariffs are like 'papering over windows', treating the symptoms but not the underlying issues!
Manufacturing Return Illusion: Under high costs, capital seeks profit rather than sentiment. Apple and Tesla have shifted to Vietnam and Shanghai, still relying on the Chinese supply chain, and tariffs have not met expectations.
High Cost
Consumers Suffer: Tariffs in 2018 caused American families to spend an additional $1,270 annually, wasting opportunities for education and debt repayment.
Corporate Dilemma: Apple's factory relocation is inefficient, Tesla relies on Chinese production capacity for survival, while American factories are mired in union troubles.
China's Strong Countermeasures
Trump misjudged China like Japan in the 1980s. China relies on its vast market and rare earths as leverage, turning the 'dual circulation' strategy into a reform-driven force, demonstrating remarkable resilience!
Global Order in Turmoil
The tariff war destroys the trade system led by the U.S., allies retaliate, RCEP and the China-Europe agreement rise, the use of the renminbi for oil settlements becomes popular, and U.S. isolationism accelerates the collapse of hegemony.
Munger's Advice
Abandon economic populism, focus on welfare, infrastructure, and skills.
Return to WTO negotiations, reject unilateral extortion.
Give businesses freedom, don’t force production locations.
Conclusion: If Munger were here, he would surely criticize Trump's tariffs for ignoring economic laws and exposing America's soft underbelly. Continuing to deceive oneself, the biggest enemy is not China, but one's own cowardice! The cryptocurrency sector waits for a rebound, patience for victory!
