Next week’s macro outlook: Trump 'messed up', Federal Reserve officials will be fully mobilized.
The U.S.: Some products imported from China are exempt from the 'reciprocal tariffs', including smartphones, some computers, and laptops.
Santiment: The tariff exemption policy has sparked a positive response in the crypto market, with Bitcoin breaking through the resistance level of $83,000.
Vitalik: The growth of the application layer is precisely when good social philosophy is most needed.
BlackRock CEO: The economic recession may have already begun, but releasing new liquidity could become a catalyst for cryptocurrencies.
Binance contracts will launch PUMPUSDT, STOUSDT, and FHEUSDT perpetual contracts.
Bloomberg: Trump family involved in cryptocurrency projects, with total paper profits nearing $1 billion.
In the past 7 days, NFT trading volume has decreased by 4.7% to $94.7 million, with buyers and sellers both dropping over 70%.
OpenAI announces that GPT-4 will be retired at the end of this month, fully replaced by 4o.
Regulation/Macro
Next week's macro outlook: Trump 'messed up', Federal Reserve officials will be fully mobilized.
In the past week, 'shorting America' has become almost a consensus worldwide. In the crisis of trust ignited by 'market fluctuations depend entirely on Trump,' American assets have been wildly sold off, especially U.S. debt and the dollar. After a week of significant volatility, uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, trade tensions, and concerns over potential severe impacts on the economy remain, and investors will closely monitor further developments while also turning their attention to the tangible economic impacts. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
At 0:00 on Tuesday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech on 'navigating the economic fog.'
At 6:00 on Tuesday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will give a speech on the role of the Federal Reserve.
At 7:40 on Tuesday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on monetary policy.
At 10:00 on Wednesday, China's first quarter GDP year-on-year.
At 0:00 on Thursday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a Q&A session.
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 12.
At 1:15 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the Chicago Economic Club.
At 7:00 on Thursday, 2025 FOMC voting members Kansas Fed President George and Dallas Fed President Logan will engage in a fireside chat about the U.S. economy and banking sector.
Among the upcoming U.S. economic data, the retail sales data for March, released on Wednesday, will attract attention, as investors will closely analyze the response of American consumers to the tariffs announced by Trump and the subsequent delays of some tariffs. According to analysts' estimates, U.S. retail sales in March are expected to grow by 1.4% month-on-month, higher than the 0.2% growth in February.
The U.S.: Some products imported from China are exempt from the 'reciprocal tariffs', including smartphones, some computers, and laptops.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, according to a memorandum signed by President Trump that day, smartphones, routers, and certain computers and laptops will no longer be subject to the previously implemented 125% so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' on Chinese imports. Under the new policy, products that meet the classification numbers specified in the U.S. (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) will be eligible for 'reciprocal tariff' exemptions, including smartphones, routers, certain computer equipment, and electronic components.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection stated that importers should declare their exemption eligibility when declaring related products. For items that cleared customs or were picked up after April 5, companies must complete the related declaration correction within 10 days after the goods are released. Unsettled items may apply for retrospective summary corrections, and settled items still under protest may also apply for refunds. It is still unclear whether these products will still be subject to a 20% tax rate that does not fall under the 'reciprocal tariff' framework. The U.S. International Trade Commission has not yet responded to related inquiries, and the White House did not immediately comment.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary says the argument that tariffs benefit the U.S. is a fraud.
According to CCTV News, on the 11th, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers stated on a TV program: 'The current tariff levels are more than ten times higher than when the U.S. initiated the trade war in 2018. I believe that apart from making prices higher, any statement claiming that 'tariffs have other (positive) effects' is fundamentally a fraud.' He also stated that the U.S. government's arbitrary imposition of tariffs is very dangerous. He said, 'This is the worst economic policy in the U.S. since World War II, the most serious act of self-harm.'
The first criminal trial of former President Yoon Suk-yeol is scheduled for the 14th; if found guilty, he could face life imprisonment or the death penalty.
According to Yonhap News, on April 13 local time, South Korean court officials revealed that the first criminal trial of former President Yoon Suk-yeol is scheduled for the 14th. Reports indicate that Yoon Suk-yeol will become the fifth former South Korean president to face criminal trial. If found guilty of rebellion, Yoon Suk-yeol could face life imprisonment or the death penalty. The Seoul Central District Court is scheduled to hear Yoon Suk-yeol's rebellion charges at 10:00 AM local time on the 14th. As the defendant, Yoon Suk-yeol must attend the hearing.
Hong Kong Police Commissioner: The distribution of the 2.28 billion HKD frozen from JPEX will only be determined after the case is concluded.
According to Sing Tao Daily, the virtual asset trading platform JPEX has been involved in a fraud case for 18 months, with the Hong Kong police successfully freezing 2.28 billion HKD. Hong Kong election committee member Wu Jiezhuang is concerned about whether the police can help victims recover their losses. In response, Hong Kong Police Commissioner Chow Ming said that the relevant case is still under investigation, and the police will seek legal advice from the Department of Justice on different parties involved in the case. The frozen funds will be determined for distribution only after the case is concluded.
On Monday, it was also reported that the Hong Kong police have established an electronic system to analyze the flow of funds in bank accounts, targeting fraudsters who use virtual assets to collect and launder funds. They have collaborated with local universities to develop a one-stop virtual asset analysis tool.
Opinion
Michael Saylor: The U.S. needs Bitcoin; the concept of strategic reserves is itself a monetary strategy.
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), stated at an event that Bitcoin does not need America; America needs Bitcoin. The concept of strategic reserves itself is a monetary strategy. In the modern world, what is money? The world of the 20th century had $450 trillion in capital money, existing in the form of private equity, public equity, foreign real estate, sovereign debt (especially foreign sovereign debt), currencies of other countries, and corporate bonds. Bitcoin is a better currency, so either keep the world as it is or introduce the concept of Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor added that Bitcoin cannot be stopped because Satoshi ignited this fire, which continues to burn, with tens of millions or even billions of dollars flowing into the network every day. Bitcoin will grow from $20 billion to $200 billion, then to $2 trillion, $20 trillion, $200 trillion.
CZ: I heard someone is paying (Wall Street Journal) employees to smear me.
Binance co-founder CZ posted on X platform stating: '(Wall Street Journal) is really trying hard. They seem to have forgotten who went to jail and who didn't; those who became government witnesses won't go to jail but will be protected. I've heard someone is paying (Wall Street Journal) employees to smear me.'
CZ: Assistance and advice provided to the government is limited to blockchain adoption and education.
Binance co-founder CZ tweeted: 'I will not engage in other issues, such as politics or religion. I remain neutral on all other issues and focus only on two topics: the adoption of blockchain and education.'
Yesterday, Binance co-founder CZ posted on X platform stating: 'If the government genuinely supports cryptocurrency, I would be happy to provide them with assistance and advice on cryptocurrency adoption and regulatory policies. I offer free advice, the only limitation is whether I have time.'
Santiment: The tariff exemption policy has sparked a positive response in the crypto market, with Bitcoin breaking through the resistance level of $83,000.
Santiment reported that Trump's tariff exemption policy triggered an instant surge in the cryptocurrency market. Compared to 24 hours ago, the tech industry's impact from high import costs has significantly weakened, and Bitcoin reached a high of $85,900.
Historically, cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin have often moved in tandem with tech stocks, especially when investor sentiment shifts toward higher-risk assets. When tech stocks perform well, investors often feel more confident purchasing cryptocurrencies. Therefore, Trump's tariff exemption policy has dispelled the clouds hanging over the tech industry, indirectly relieving pressure on the crypto market. In fact, just hours after the announcement, Bitcoin rebounded to a weekend high of $85,900, breaking through the resistance level around $83,000.
Additionally, the exemptions for semiconductors and computer components can be seen as long-term benefits for the crypto ecosystem. These components are crucial for cryptocurrency mining, blockchain infrastructure building, and the development of AI-based crypto tools. If the production and supply of these components remain uninterrupted and reasonably priced, it will ensure that the pillars of the crypto industry—whether mining or development—continue to operate. This means that crypto exchanges, wallet providers, and tech startups dedicated to blockchain solutions will be able to operate more smoothly.
Although Trump's trade policies remain complex and unpredictable, targeted exemptions for tech devices provide clear policy direction in the short term and alleviate market pressures. Investors are now more confident that inflation on consumer electronics will be avoided, and companies will not be forced to raise prices or cut innovation. This does not mean the end of tariff concerns, but it does alleviate one of the biggest worries facing the cryptocurrency industry.
Currently, a moderate bullish reaction has been observed in the cryptocurrency market, and the stock market should also rise on Monday, which will drive Bitcoin and altcoins further up. However, after the initial reaction, the market will become more interesting, and the public's 'FOMO' sentiment may stifle any upward trend.
Vitalik: The growth of the application layer is precisely when good social philosophy is most needed.
In response to the statement that 'Ethereum's self-updating requires generational/talent replacement, and the next generation needs to be rooted in Ethereum's values (such as cypherpunk),' Vitalik Buterin replied on Warpcast: 'I actually think that the growth of the application layer is precisely when good social philosophy is most needed. To put it another way: suppose C++ was developed by an authoritarian racist fascist. Would it be a worse language? Probably not. C++ is general-purpose and has little room for bad social philosophy to corrupt it (or for good social philosophy to improve it). Ethereum Layer-1 is not entirely like this: those who do not believe in decentralization will not add light clients, FOCIL, or (good forms of) account abstraction; those who do not care about energy waste will not spend five years migrating to PoS… but in any case, the opcodes of the EVM may be roughly the same. Therefore, about 50% of Ethereum may be general-purpose. About 80% of applications are specific. What kind of applications you build largely depends on your ideas about what Ethereum applications (and Ethereum as a whole) will do for the world. Therefore, having good ideas on this topic becomes crucial.'
Additionally, Vitalik listed some applications, considering good applications like Railgun, Farcaster, Polymarket, Signal, and bad ones like Pump.fun, Terra/Luna, FTX. He believes that the differences in application functionality stem from developers having different beliefs about what they want to achieve.
BlackRock CEO: The economic recession may have already begun, but releasing new liquidity could become a catalyst for cryptocurrencies.
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned in an interview with CNBC about a possible economic recession in the U.S., stating that it may have already begun. Larry Fink pointed out that rising economic pressures and protectionist trade policies are key drivers behind what he believes to be a slow economic contraction. While concerns about recession typically disrupt traditional markets, cryptocurrency investors may have reason to feel optimistic. The upcoming economic slowdown may prompt the Federal Reserve to reverse monetary tightening policies, potentially unleashing a new wave of liquidity. Analysts say this situation could be a major catalyst for digital assets like Bitcoin.
Larry Fink's remarks align with similar predictions from major Wall Street institutions like JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Traders on decentralized prediction markets like Kalshi and PolyMarket are also increasingly betting on an impending U.S. economic recession.
Analyst: The ratio of Bitcoin to VIX has touched the long-term trend line, possibly indicating that Bitcoin has bottomed out.
Senior analyst James Van Straten stated that the S&P volatility index has soared to its highest level since August of last year, indicating increased market uncertainty. The ratio of Bitcoin to VIX has reached the long-term trend line at 1903; the last time it touched this trend line was around the time of the Yen arbitrage trades being unwound. At that time, the price of Bitcoin had fallen to around $49,000. In fact, this is the fourth time this ratio has touched the trend line and bottomed out. Previously, this ratio touched the trend line during the peak of the pandemic in March 2020 and in August 2015, and in both instances, prices rose after touching the bottom.
Project dynamics
DWF Labs has received 11 million USD1 on both ETH and BSC chains in the past 8 days and has now begun deploying USD1 liquidity.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, DWF Labs has begun adding USD1 liquidity on-chain, meaning the USD stablecoin launched by the DeFi project WLFI, supported by the Trump family, is now available for on-chain trading. DWF Labs has received 11 million USD1 from WLFI on both ETH and BSC chains in the past 8 days, and they have started deploying USD1 liquidity on both chains today.
ETH: USDT/USD1, USDC/USD1, USDf/USD1, ETH/USD1 liquidity deployed on Uniswap V3.
BSC: USDT/USD1 and BNB/USD1 liquidity deployed on Pancakeswap V3.
Binance contracts will launch PUMPUSDT, STOUSDT, and FHEUSDT perpetual contracts.
According to an official announcement, Binance's contract platform will launch perpetual contracts at the following times:
April 12, 2025, 22:30 (UTC+8): PUMPUSDT perpetual contract, with a maximum leverage of up to 20 times.
April 12, 2025, 22:45 (UTC+8): STOUSDT perpetual contract, with a maximum leverage of up to 20 times.
April 12, 2025, 23:00 (UTC+8): FHEUSDT perpetual contract, with a maximum leverage of up to 20 times.
*Please note that PUMP (LINK), STO (LINK), and FHE (LINK) have been launched on Binance Alpha market.
OpenAI announces that GPT-4 will be retired at the end of this month, fully replaced by 4o.
OpenAI stated on its website that starting from April 30, GPT-4 will be 'completely replaced' by GPT-4o, but GPT-4 will continue to be available through API.
OpenAI stated, 'In face-to-face assessments, it (4o) consistently outperforms GPT-4 in writing, coding, STEM, and more.' According to The Verge on the 10th, OpenAI will unveil a series of new AI models next week, including GPT-4.1, which will be an improved version of the multimodal model 4o. OpenAI will also launch smaller versions of GPT-4.1 mini and nano, as well as the o3 'reasoning' model and a new reasoning model named o4-mini.
Wayfinder co-founder: A 90-day overview of multiple key features will be released next week.
Wayfinder co-founder Kalos tweeted that after discussing the delivery timeline of the following projects with the engineering team, they will release an overview for about 90 days next week:
Scalability
Security enhancement
Path creation release
Validator release (pilot)
Partial switch to Crow-32B
More agent types and functions (contract proxy testing framework, portfolio handling)
Additional network support
Wayfinder API and other features
Kalos also plans to update Parallel, Colony, and Sanctuary in the coming week.
Important data
In the past 7 days, NFT trading volume has decreased by 4.7% to $94.7 million, with buyers and sellers both dropping over 70%.
CryptoSlam data shows that NFT trading volume decreased by 4.7% this week to $94.7 million. The number of NFT buyers plummeted by 77.9% to 128,244; the number of NFT sellers fell by 75.2% to 85,792. The number of NFT transactions also decreased by 6.3% to 1,441,009.
The Ethereum blockchain still dominates, with a transaction volume of $36.1 million, an increase of 41.3% from last week. The Polygon network ranks second with a transaction volume of $17.4 million, a slight year-on-year increase of 4.3%. The Mythos Chain network follows closely with a transaction volume of $14.1 million, a slight year-on-year increase of 2%. The Solana network's transaction volume plummeted by 33.4% to $6.5 million.
Notable high-value transactions include:
CryptoPunks #3100 sold for 4,000 ETH ($6,042,922).
CryptoPunks #1182 sold for 142 ETH ($209,310).
Pixel Vault Founders DAO #4 sold for 97.08 RETH ($161,511).
Autoglyphs #462 sold for 98.5 WETH ($149,724).
CryptoPunks #5361 sold for 69.69 ETH ($108,204).
A whale withdrew approximately 2.43 million USD worth of SOL from Coinbase 2 hours ago, accumulating 40.4 million USD worth of SOL in the past month.
According to monitoring by The Data Nerd, 2 hours ago, wallet S4m83 withdrew 18,391 SOL (approximately $2.43 million) from Coinbase. Over the past month, this wallet has accumulated a total of 255,690 SOL (approximately $40.4 million), with an average cost of $158.
A whale with 56,995 ETH nearing liquidation sold the remaining 2,000 ETH three hours ago.
According to @ai_9684xtpa monitoring, the whale holding 56,995 ETH nearing liquidation is close to liquidating, having reduced holdings by a total of 64,792 ETH. On April 10, they reduced their position by 35,881 ETH at an average price of $1,562 and, three hours ago, sold the remaining 2,000 ETH at a selling price of $1,575; they currently still hold 688 ETH.
Andrew Kang doubled his Bitcoin holdings to $200 million this morning.
According to Arkham monitoring, Mechanism Capital co-founder Andrew Kang doubled his Bitcoin holdings this morning, with a Bitcoin value of 200 million USD and a profit of 6.8 million USD.
Bloomberg: Trump family involved in cryptocurrency projects, with total paper profits nearing $1 billion.
According to Bloomberg, President Trump and his family are involved in nearly every aspect of the cryptocurrency industry. They have invested in NFTs and digital collectibles; a decentralized finance project; a proposed stablecoin; a Bitcoin mining plan; and a pair of meme coins, one belonging to the president and one to First Lady Melania Trump. According to public data, even considering the market fluctuations caused by the latest round of trade wars, the total paper profit from these projects is close to $1 billion.