The following is an analysis of Trump's tariff policy from the perspective of Charlie Munger:

I. Evaluation of Trump's Personal Traits
Years ago, Munger openly criticized Trump as "vain and boastful", indicating his skepticism towards Trump's personal decision-making style and behavior. From the way Trump has implemented tariff policies, his high-profile promotion and treating tariff policy as a political bargaining chip contradict Munger's emphasis on rational and pragmatic decision-making.

Trump's simplistic attribution of the trade deficit to China "stealing American jobs" lacks a deep understanding of the complexity of economic issues and is more about exploiting public sentiment for political performance rather than based on rigorous economic analysis.

II. Critique of the Economic Logic of Tariff Policy
1. The Essence of Trade Deficits: Charlie Munger pointed out that trade deficits are a fundamental concept in economics, reflecting the relationship between savings rates and investment demand. The root cause of the trade deficit is America's long-term reliance on consumption-driven growth and insufficient savings rates. Blaming China and attempting to solve the problem through tariffs is a shortsighted behavior that obscures structural issues, akin to using newspaper to fix a leaky window; it does not fundamentally address the problem.

2. The Illusion of Manufacturing Reshoring: Trump claimed that tariff policies would bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but the essence of capital is to pursue efficiency rather than sentiment. Labor costs in the U.S. are much higher than in Southeast Asia, and forcibly distorting market rules will only trap companies in a cost quagmire.

The strategies of Apple and Tesla also prove this point; companies must adjust their production layouts to reduce costs and maintain competitiveness, and the tariff policy has not achieved the expected effects of manufacturing reshoring.

III. Analysis of the Costs of Tariff Policy
1. Consumers Foot the Bill: There are always those who fantasize that "foreigners will pay for the tariffs," but in reality, the cost of tariffs is ultimately passed on to American consumers. Data shows that tariffs on China in 2018 led to an average annual increase of about $1270 in expenses for American households, which could have been used for more valuable expenditures, like education investment or debt repayment, but were wasted due to tariff policies.

2. Corporate Response Strategies Expose Policy Weaknesses: In response to tariffs, companies have adopted various strategies; for example, Apple moved some production lines to Vietnam, but the local supply chain is inefficient, still requiring Chinese components.

Tesla relies on the capacity of its Shanghai factory to maintain global delivery volumes, while domestic factories face challenges such as union costs. These circumstances indicate that tariff policies did not benefit American companies; instead, they have fallen into difficulties.

IV. Perspectives on China's Countermeasures
Trump seems to believe that China will yield like Japan did in the 1980s, but he overlooks the key differences between China and Japan in terms of market size and strategic reserves. China's large consumer base and abundant strategic reserves (such as rare earth controls and the unreliable entity list) enable it to effectively respond to U.S. tariff policies.

China's "dual circulation" strategy further transforms external pressure into a catalyst for internal reform, promoting the unification of the domestic market and breaking local protectionism, demonstrating strong adaptability.

V. Impact on the Global Order
The trade war has destroyed the trade system that the U.S. built with its own hands since World War II, leading allies to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., which has lost its voice in global governance.

At the same time, countries are beginning to construct "de-Americanized" supply chains, as seen in the advancement of the China-Europe Investment Agreement, the signing of RCEP, and Saudi Arabia settling oil trades in renminbi, all indicating that U.S. isolationist policies are accelerating the collapse of the global order.

VI. Recommendations for the U.S.
1. Stop Economic Populism: Instead of blaming China, reform the bloated welfare system, enhance labor skills, and rebuild infrastructure to fundamentally address economic problems.

2. Return to Multilateralism: Resolve subsidy and intellectual property disputes within the framework of#WTO rather than adopting unilateral coercion, to maintain the stability of the global trading system.

3. Respect Corporate Autonomy: The government should not dictate to companies "where to produce", but instead create a fair market environment through taxation and regulation, allowing companies to make independent decisions based on market rules.

VII. Conclusion
Munger's critique of#特朗普 #关税政策 reflects his respect for economic laws and pursuit of rational decision-making. Tariff policies have exposed deep-seated problems in the U.S. economy and reflect the Trump administration's neglect of economic common sense in its decision-making process.

If the U.S. continues down this self-deceptive path, it will ultimately discover that its greatest enemy is not China across the ocean, but its own cowardice in refusing to face the truth.

Thanks to#deepseek for restoring Munger's perspective. Finally, I quote German poet Rainer Maria Rilke: "Reality and victory always stand on the side of patience."#加密市场反弹