#加密市场反弹 #加密市场反弹 $BTC

**Recent Market Analysis of Bitcoin: Consolidation at the Bottom, Rebound Momentum Building**

In the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) price has been fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $83,600, failing to effectively break through the key resistance level of $86,000, putting short-term technicals under pressure. Despite cautious market sentiment, on-chain data and capital flows indicate that selling pressure is gradually easing, and rebound signals are beginning to emerge.

**Key Signals and Support Factors**

1. **Exhaustion of Selling Power**: The BTC seller ratio has dropped to 0.086%, the lowest level in two years. Historical experience indicates that when this indicator is below 0.1%, it usually signals a significant price rebound. Meanwhile, net positions on exchanges are decreasing, and short-term selling pressure is nearing its end.

2. **Supply Tightening Post-Halving**: After the fourth halving, the daily output of Bitcoin has decreased to 450 coins, combined with long-term holders continuously accumulating (an increase of 200,000 coins per month), structural shortages may drive price recovery.

3. **Favorable Policies and Capital Flow**: Expectations for pro-crypto policies following Trump's re-election are rising, coupled with inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs (over $30 billion accumulated in 2024), institutional demand is providing support for the market.

**Risks and Resistance**

- **Technical Pressure**: $86,000 is a watershed for bulls and bears; if the breakout fails, it may trigger a continuation decline, targeting the $78,000 to $80,000 range.

- **Macro Disruptions**: U.S. inflation data and geopolitical situations (such as conflicts in the Middle East) may still exacerbate volatility, with the VIX index rising to 29 indicating that market risk aversion has not fully dissipated.

**Outlook: Focus on Key Breakthroughs and Ecosystem Narratives**

If BTC maintains above $86,000 on the daily chart and forms a MACD golden cross, it is expected to initiate a new round of upward movement, targeting $90,000 to $100,000. In the medium to long term, the Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem (such as the Rune protocol) and the trend of institutional accumulation may become the core driving force of the next market cycle.

**Strategy Recommendations**: In the short term, attention can be paid to support near $80,000, positioning on dips; increase positions after breaking above $86,000. Be mindful of leverage risks, with total position recommended to be controlled within 40%.