Donald Trump’s Solana-based meme coin, $TRUMP , is approaching a significant milestone with its first major token unlock scheduled for April 18. This event has sparked debate within the crypto community regarding its potential impact on the asset’s price trajectory.
According to data from crypto analytics firm Tokenomist, approximately 40 million TRUMP tokens, valued at an estimated $320 million at current market prices, are set to enter circulation. This release will increase the token’s circulating supply by 20%, raising concerns over possible downward price pressure due to increased supply.
Token Unlock: A Bearish Signal?
Sidney Powell, CEO and co-founder of Maple Finance, told Decrypt that token unlocks typically carry bearish implications. "Unlock events reduce scarcity, and unless demand increases proportionately, price levels can be difficult to sustain," Powell said.
TRUMP’s unlock schedule gradually increases token circulation from 200 million to 1 billion over the next 36 months. Post-April 18, approximately $4 million worth of TRUMP tokens will be released daily through July. While the scale of the unlock is not considered unusually large, its sustained nature could introduce persistent selling pressure.
“If you saw a bigger cliff, you’d be more worried,” Powell added. “But once tokens start to unlock, more people will sell.”
Holder Behavior May Moderate Market Impact
Despite the bearish outlook commonly associated with unlocks, TRUMP’s holder demographics may offer some insulation from immediate sell-offs. Data from Chainalysis indicates that many TRUMP holders acquired the token as their first altcoin on Solana, suggesting a less experienced investor base that may be more inclined to hold rather than sell quickly.
As of Friday, TRUMP was trading at $8.13, according to CoinGecko, up 3.7% over the previous 24 hours but still down nearly 89% from its all-time high of $73.43, which occurred shortly after its January 17 launch.
Speculation, Sentiment, and Utility
Despite the upcoming unlock, TRUMP maintains a robust $1.6 billion market capitalization. Matthew Nay, a research analyst at Messari, described the valuation as “remarkable” for a meme coin, noting its reliance on sentiment rather than fundamentals.
While token unlocks can sometimes be accompanied by orchestrated social media hype, Nay expressed skepticism about such tactics being employed this time. “I don’t expect any classic token unlock pump,” he said, despite former President Trump’s previous public endorsements of the token.
On-chain data from Dune Analytics shows that fewer than 13,000 wallets hold more than $1,000 in TRUMP, while over 191,000 wallets have already exited their positions.
Conclusion
Whether the forthcoming token unlock acts as a catalyst for a price decline or an unexpected rally remains uncertain. However, given the nature of meme-based assets, one thing appears inevitable: market volatility.
