Currently, the U.S. stock market has not fully reflected the comprehensive impact of tax increases and inflation concerns, and the market may still not have bottomed out. Here is a detailed analysis to determine if the U.S. stock market has bottomed out and to validate strategies:

1. Economic Fundamentals

- Inflation Data: Continuously monitor core PCE price index, CPI, and other inflation indicators. If inflation remains high or exceeds expectations, it will increase market concerns and may lead to further declines in the stock market.

- Economic Growth: Economic indicators such as GDP growth rate, consumer confidence index, and manufacturing PMI, if showing signs of economic slowdown or recession, will put pressure on the stock market.

- Corporate Earnings: The performance during the corporate earnings season is crucial. If corporate earnings generally decline, especially among large tech stocks and industry leaders, it may trigger market sell-offs.

2. Policy Factors

- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and officials' statements. If the Fed maintains high rates or delays rate cuts due to inflationary pressures, it will negatively impact stock market valuations.

- Government Policy: The progress of Trump's tariff policy and its impact on the economy and trade. If tariff measures escalate further, it may exacerbate market uncertainty.

3. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows

- Market Volatility: Observe volatility indicators such as the VIX index. If the VIX continues to rise, it reflects increasing market panic, and the stock market may continue to decline.

- Fund Flows: Pay attention to the flow of investor funds, such as whether institutional investors are significantly reducing positions and how retail investor sentiment is. Continuous outflow of funds from the stock market often indicates a lack of market confidence.

Validate Strategy

1. Technical Analysis

- Trend Line Analysis: Observe whether major stock indices break key trend lines, such as the 200-day moving average. Effective breaches may indicate that the market is entering a deeper adjustment phase.

- Support and Resistance Levels: Monitor previous lows and important round numbers as support levels. If these support levels are effectively breached, it may trigger further declines.

2. Fundamental Analysis

- Tracking Macroeconomic Data: Regularly pay attention to the release of U.S. economic data to assess the health of economic fundamentals.

- Corporate Earnings Forecast: Analyze market expectations for future corporate earnings and compare them with actual financial reports to assess whether the market has fully reflected the risks of declining earnings.

3. Market Sentiment Analysis

- Investor Sentiment Survey: Focus on various investor sentiment survey reports to understand the level of optimism or pessimism among market participants.

- Media Reports and Public Opinion: Closely follow financial media coverage of market dynamics and expert commentary to grasp changes in market sentiment.

4. Fund Flow Analysis

- ETF Fund Flows: Observe the inflow and outflow of funds in major ETFs to gauge investors' overall sentiment towards the market.

- Institutional Holdings Changes: Analyze the holdings reports of large institutional investors to understand their reallocation trends.

In summary, by closely monitoring economic fundamentals, policy changes, market sentiment, and fund flows, combined with technical and fundamental analysis methods, a more comprehensive assessment of the U.S. stock market's trends can be made to determine if it has bottomed out and to formulate corresponding investment strategies.#特朗普暂停新关税