In this significant drop, Ethereum rebounded 10% from its low point, while Solana rebounded 20%. I bought the dip on Solana at 98, but Ethereum is still in a cash position. On one hand, I have a physiological aversion to Ethereum, and on the other hand, rationally speaking, I personally believe that if there is a bull market in the next six months, Ethereum will still not outperform Solana.
Firstly, the strength of the rebounds for both has already indicated everything; Ethereum is weak and powerless, and there are even ancient whales continuously unloading their holdings, while Solana's rebound is strong and numerically twice that of Ethereum.
Secondly, I still see no signs of any improvement in Ethereum's fundamentals. Let me tell you something alarming: the new SEC chairman has taken office this week, so the probability of an ETF approval for staking in May is high. You might say, isn't this good news for Ethereum? Yes, that's correct, but don't forget that Solana is likely to be the next one to get an ETF approval as well.
So what kind of situation will that create? There will be BTC, ETH, and Solana ETFs appearing simultaneously. BTC is a given; no one can shake that. Ethereum and Solana will be competing for the limited funds that are available.
Imagine yourself as a U.S. stock investor. How many people who bought Ethereum would switch to Solana once its ETF gets approved? If we say this round is the ETF giving Ethereum a lifeline, a rough estimate might suggest that as much as 30% to 50% of Ethereum's current price is propped up by the ETF? When Solana's ETF gets approved, it will likely take away a significant portion of this poor half-life of Ethereum....
Solana will likely drain Ethereum, especially since in the U.S. stock market, there aren’t many steadfast advocates brainwashed by concepts like Vitalik's endless garden, decentralization, privacy security, and communism. The investors in the U.S. stock market are mature and believe that whoever rises is the best.
So if in May we see the coexistence of BTC ETF, ETH ETF, and Solana ETF, can you imagine what that situation will be like?
Of course, Solana will also face the same situation as BTC and ETH, where early holders might dump their shares right after the ETF approval.