Polymarket shows that the probability of a recession in the U.S. by 2025 has risen to 60%, reflecting market concerns about the future economic outlook. With global economic turmoil and domestic policy uncertainties, along with potentially persistent high inflation and interest rate pressures, market expectations for a downturn in the U.S. economy are gradually increasing.

Since March, the market's expectation of a recession has risen from 20% to 60%, indicating that investors are increasingly anticipating economic weakness. This trend suggests that investors may have doubts about the resilience of the U.S. economy, especially in light of factors such as global supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial crises.

If the NBER announces a recession in 2025, or if BEA data confirms two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, this will further validate market concerns and may have a greater impact on financial markets. Overall, the rise in this prediction indicates that the market is adjusting its expectations for the U.S. economy, reminding investors to be vigilant about potential recession risks. #特朗普暂停新关税