This time, Ethereum rebounded 10% from its low, while Sol rebounded 20%. I bottomed out on Sol at 98, but Ethereum is still in a zero position. On one hand, I am physiologically disgusted with ETH, and on the other hand, rationally speaking, I personally believe that if there is still a bull market in the next six months, ETH will still not outperform Sol. First of all, the strength of the rebound for both has already said it all; ETH is weak and powerless, and there are still ancient whales continuously unloading, while Sol's rebound is strong, being twice that of ETH.
Secondly, I still do not see any signs of improvement in ETH's fundamentals in the near future. Let me tell you something scary: the new SEC chair has taken office this week, so it is highly likely that the ETF staking will be approved in May. You might say, isn't this good for Ethereum? That's true, but don't forget, the next ETF to be approved will likely be Sol.
So what will the situation look like then? BTC, ETH, and Sol will all have ETFs at the same time. BTC is a given and no one can shake it, while ETH and Sol will compete for the limited funds that are flowing in.
Please replace your head with that of a US stock investor. How many of those who bought ETH do you think will switch to Sol after the Sol ETF is approved? If this round is like an ETF giving Ethereum a lifeline, a rough estimate might be that currently, 30% or even over 50% of Ethereum's price is supported by the ETF? When Sol's ETF is approved, it might take a good chunk of Ethereum's pitiful half-life as well...
Sol is likely to drain ETH, as there are no steadfast E-guardians brainwashed by Vitalik's infinite garden, decentralization, privacy security, communism, etc., in the US stock market. In the US stock market, it's all about who has the milk; whoever rises is awesome among mature investors.
So if in May there is a situation where BTC ETF, ETH ETF, and Sol ETF all exist at the same time, can you imagine what that would be like?
Of course, Sol will also likely experience situations similar to BTC and ETH, where early chip dumping occurs after the ETF is approved.
You might ask, ETH's ETF has an additional card, which is staking; how cute! If Sol's ETF is approved, it can also stake.
So what cards does ETH still hold?
I am not FUDing Ethereum nor praising Sol; I am just purely analyzing this matter from the perspective of a vulgar speculator trying to make money.
Will Ethereum still rise? Of course, it will, but I personally believe it won't rise as much as Sol.
I believe that the script for Ethereum is likely to reach 3000, at most 3500, after the ETF staking is approved. I have no expectation of returning to 4000 or even breaking through the previous high. Both of Ethereum's double tops were immediately knocked down at 4000, so the difficulty of breaking through 4000 for the third time is extremely high, unless there is a massive influx of funds and structural improvement in the fundamentals, completely lifting everyone out of the water.