#CPI&JoblessClaimsWatch The annual CPI inflation rate down to 2. 6% from 2. 8%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0. 3%, lowering the annual core inflation rate to 3% from 3. 1%, the lowest since April 2021. The CPI impacts about 70% of the Fed's core PCE price index.

Economists anticipate 225,000 initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 5, up from 219,000. The number of people continuing to claim benefits is also under observation, as it shows that finding work is becoming more difficult.

Following Trump’s pause on tariffs, the chance of a Fed rate cut on May 7 has decreased to 17%, down from 50%. Currently, there’s a 74% chance of a rate cut by the June 18 meeting, and 79% odds for at least 75 basis points in cuts by the end of the year.