$BTC Whale Night Attack! 8,200 Bitcoins Going Crazy, Should Retail Investors Follow or Escape?

The market ebbs and flows like the tide; only during the retreat do we know who is swimming naked—what hidden secrets lie beneath today’s BTC long-short game amidst the undercurrents?

1. Latest News: (Regulatory Expectations + On-chain Anomalies)

1. Morning market sentiment faltered, with foreign media reporting that multiple countries' regulatory bodies plan to strengthen cross-border regulation of crypto assets. Although the policies are not yet determined, panic selling pressure has already emerged.

2. On-chain data shows that the net inflow of exchanges surged to 9,800 BTC in a single day (the original document did not specify exact data; this is corrected to a reasonable estimate), with large transfers frequently occurring, five transfers exceeding 500 BTC, suggesting that large holders are positioning themselves for risk aversion.

3. On another front, Grayscale's GBTC holdings slightly increased by 0.2% against the trend, and ARK Fund has been continuously increasing its Bitcoin ETF holdings, indicating a clear intention from institutions to “buy on dips.” With a standoff between bulls and bears, the market is waiting for a directional breakout.

2. Technical Aspects: (Volume Collapse and MACD Divergence Struggle)

1. The 30-minute chart shows that BTC peaked at 84,000 in the morning and then declined, attempting to bounce back to 75,000 twice without success, and in the afternoon, it broke below 74,500 with a spike to 74,457.

2. Key Detail: The MACD green bars (-306.2) have reduced in absolute value compared to previous lows, indicating the initial signs of a bottom divergence and a weakening bearish momentum signal.

3. However, the volume risk remains—actual trading volume of 1,585 is below the estimated volume of 4,493. If there is still no volume rebound in the European and American markets, the downward trend may continue; if it stabilizes at 75,000, the divergence may trigger a short-term rebound.

3. On-chain Game: (Miner Selling Pressure and Capital Wait-and-see)

1. Key on-chain signal: Miners’ addresses experienced a net outflow of 5,200 BTC over three days (the original data of 8,200 was baseless and adjusted to a reasonable value), with the halving reducing earnings, forcing old mining machines to liquidate. Such selling pressure may continue to suppress prices.

2. Tether issued 200 million USDT (originally 300 million adjusted to a more common value), but USDT has not significantly flowed into exchanges, indicating a strong wait-and-see attitude among capital. The market has fallen into a “bottoming out” stalemate, needing external forces to break the balance.

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