#CPI数据来袭

【CPI Data Storm Approaches, Global Markets Hold Their Breath】

This Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor is set to release the June CPI data, marking a "critical 48 hours" for global financial markets. As a core indicator of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, this inflation data will directly influence expectations regarding interest rate cuts in September. Market predictions suggest that the overall CPI year-on-year may fall to 3.1%, but the core CPI stubbornly remains at a high of 3.4%, with rebounding energy prices and persistently high service costs making it more difficult for "the last mile" of inflation to cool down.

The stock and bond markets have already entered a turbulent phase: if the data comes in below expectations, U.S. stocks may see a short-term surge, and U.S. Treasury yields might decline; however, if core inflation surprises to the upside again, the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" hawkish stance could severely impact risk assets. In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar index continues to hover at high levels, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards a policy shift. Current market pricing indicates that the probability of a rate cut in September has fallen below 70%, and this CPI report may become the final arbiter in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.