I am here to go against the wind.
I think there might still be another wave of crazy growth later, which can be viewed from several perspectives.
In the past, if a bear market came, almost all cryptocurrencies would move very similarly. But this time, among the top ten coins, the trends are actually quite different. Ethereum is being bloodily washed out, Bitcoin looks like a bull flag, and BNB seems to be in a large consolidation box. The funds are not fleeing en masse like before, but rather each coin is washing out individually.
Various indicators also show that the market is currently in an oversold range. On-chain data shows that whales are slowly accumulating positions, and exchange reserves have hit a new low. Ethereum has even faced historical-level sell-offs and turnover, and ETH/BTC has reached a historical low.
From an emotional standpoint, I think this is the most critical factor. Recently, everyone’s mood has been very negative, whether it’s concerns about economic recession, tariffs, or the overall environment, everyone is saying to short, predicting ETH to drop to 500, or even to zero. The Fear and Greed Index is also oscillating in extreme fear.
Looking back when Bitcoin surged to 100,000, everyone knew there was a futures gap at 70,000 and 80,000, but the market went crazy enough to make everyone forget, and only then did it get filled. Economic recessions are the same; the market doesn't react when everyone 'knows' but rather waits until everyone forgets. And to make everyone forget, it often requires a wave of crazy upward movement first.
On the policy front, with Trump's friendliness towards crypto, various friendly policies are now being implemented. The actual adoption progress in the crypto circle is unprecedented, but the coin prices have diverged.
I am also wondering if institutions want to enter Web3, they need us to first hand over our chips, allowing them to enter at lower prices, then they will align with good news releases.
Even V God hasn’t made much of a statement about this downturn, just focusing on technical development. Could it be that he actually knows in advance that there will be large-scale adoption in the future, so he tolerates this violent washout to eliminate early profits and weak holders, allowing institutions to build their positions?
ETH ETF has actually been approved, so the speed at which institutions can enter can be very fast. So why has this wave of ETH been the hardest hit? Perhaps it’s because it is the most consensus-driven altcoin leader, with the most retail holders. To destroy faith and force out chips, institutions need to buy in at lower levels to establish a stable bottom, thus avoiding concerns about subsequent whale sell-offs.
This is why I feel that the altcoin season might really not be far away. At this point, indicators, data, sentiment, and policies are all in place; if it still doesn’t start, then there probably really won’t be an altcoin season.
The above are all my personal subjective opinions and do not constitute any investment advice. Everyone must bear the risk of their own views.
$ETH
