Evening market analysis is here!!!
Economic data and market confidence: The CPI in March has dropped to a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but alarms are ringing in the U.S. Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through 4.5%, reflecting investors' concerns about the government's ability to repay debt. These concerns will dampen market confidence, leading funds to flow out of the stock market due to risk aversion, which will push U.S. stocks downward.
Trade tensions: The escalation of U.S.-China trade tariffs is affecting the profit outlook for American companies. Exporting companies are facing reduced orders and rising costs, particularly in related sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, where declining profit expectations will drag down U.S. stock performance.
Short-term bearish factors:
Reduced risk appetite: The uncertainty brought by trade tensions and economic data has lowered investors' risk appetite. As a market for risk assets, funds in the cryptocurrency space will flow towards safe-haven assets, leading to capital outflow from the crypto market.
Correlation with U.S. stocks: There is a certain correlation between the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks. When U.S. stocks decline, the crypto market is often affected. Investor sentiment transmits between the two markets, and the panic triggered by the fall in U.S. stocks can spread to the crypto market.
Long-term potential bullish factors:
Inflation and monetary policy: If inflationary pressures ease, and if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and relaxes financial conditions, market liquidity will increase, which will be beneficial for the development of the crypto market in the long run.
Regulatory expectations: If the new SEC Chairman implements a "crypto-friendly regulatory framework," it will inject confidence into the crypto asset market and attract capital inflow.
Tonight, the crypto market is likely to continue its fluctuations, and there may even be a downturn. The market's reaction to trade tensions and economic data needs time to digest, and investor sentiment is cautious, with selling pressure likely to dominate. However, if positive news breaks out (such as favorable signals from regulators), it may trigger a short-term rebound.