Recently, liquidity has been poor, so I have mainly shared my personal understanding of the market in the channel. Fortunately, I accurately predicted the breakout and pullback of USDT.D, so this time, Trump's trade war can safely land with the friends following this channel.
Currently, the key to the market's speculation is whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will precede the economic recession.
If Powell starts cutting interest rates only after the economic recession, then the rate cuts themselves will become bearish, and a bear market will be fully formed.
VIX is calculated based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options, particularly based on market expectations embedded in option prices.
Low VIX values (e.g., 10-15): Indicate that the market expects stability, and investor confidence is relatively high.
High VIX values (e.g., above 30): Indicate that the market expects significant volatility, usually associated with panic or major uncertainty events (such as economic crises or geopolitical conflicts).
Currently (as of 25.4.10 24:00), VIX has risen to 45.17. Each rise in VIX brings a massive amount of panic selling.
This rise in VIX comes from a negative CPI month-on-month rate.
CPI is the Consumer Price Index, which you can simply understand as the price level. If the CPI month-on-month rate is negative, such as -0.2%, it indicates that the price level has decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, which usually indicates signs of deflation in the economy, meaning that the overall prices of goods and services are falling.
Tightening is scarier than inflation. Because tightening usually means rising unemployment, and people have no money to spend, leading to a tightening cycle. This is also the pain caused by the major layoffs at DOGE. The surge in VIX, in other words, means that the market has begun to factor in recession expectations.
Below is my personal channel, where I will share my understanding of the market, share materials, and occasionally share my personal favorite MEME. Currently, the group chat is not open to the public.
x.com/crypandapto/status/1910362606495547805
