#CPI&JoblessClaimsWatch #CPI&JoblessClaimsWatch

Latest CPI and Unemployment Claims data have been released, and it has sparked some discussions. The CPI for March came in cooler than expected: the headline month-over-month declined 0.1% compared to the estimate of +0.1%, and year-over-year reached 2.4%, below the estimate of 2.5%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% month-over-month (compared to the expected 0.3%) and 2.8% year-over-year, also below the forecast of 3.0%. This suggests that inflation may cool more quickly than anticipated, which could give the Fed some breathing room. On the unemployment side, initial claims rose to 223K, in line with estimates, from 219K last week. Continuing claims fell to 1.85M, better than the estimated 1.886M. The labor market looks stable, not showing remarkable strength but also not collapsing. The market is digesting this as a sign that the economy is cooling without falling—potentially bullish for risk assets if the Fed takes a dovish stance, but don’t expect interest rate cuts anytime soon. Rates and geopolitical noise could still shake things up. What do you think about how this will play out?