Recharge everyone's faith and look at the historical panic in the past; how long will it take to bring about a small bull market?
Case 1) 2017: Bitcoin under the 9.4 Policy Storm
The price of Bitcoin was cut in half, falling from 5,000 yuan to below 2,800 yuan, but it only lasted for more than 10 days, followed by a surge to a high of 20,000 yuan, an increase of nearly 7 times.
Case 2) 2020: The '3.12' Black Swan Continued Panic for 43 Days
The price of Bitcoin fell from $8,000 to $3,780, followed by a rebound, with Bitcoin soaring from a low of $3,850 to a high of $64,895. An increase of nearly 17 times in 400 days.
Case 3) 2021: FUD Attacks and Market Turmoil Panic Lasting 3 Months
First, on May 12, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla would suspend the use of Bitcoin to purchase cars due to concerns about the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining.
Secondly, on May 18, the People's Bank of China reiterated that digital tokens cannot be used as currency and prohibited financial institutions and payment agencies from providing services related to cryptocurrencies, which further exacerbated the market's selling pressure.
The price of Bitcoin fell from $50,000 to $28,800, then in August, Bitcoin reached a high of $70,000, and the panic lasted for 2.5 months before ending.
Case 4) 2022: The Luna Crash and FTX Bankruptcy Caused Continuous Panic for 65 Days
Due to the institutional bankruptcies caused by the Luna crash, a series of chain reactions occurred, and being in a bear market, this panic is very similar to that of 2018, with Bitcoin falling from $40,000 to a low of $17,622.
However, the crash in 2022 was not only due to Luna's decoupling. In November, the FTX exchange also collapsed, bringing the market into panic, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of $15,479, the lowest point in nearly 3 years, followed by the current Bitcoin bull market.
Therefore, during this tariff panic, Sister Bei firmly believes that it will bring a small bull market to the market later. What should be noted in the meantime is no longer the interest rate cut expectations, but the recession expectations, because the market's probability of recession expectations is constantly increasing. Once signs of recession appear, it will bring a black swan, which is the market's final drop, and this must be guarded against.
Short-term operations should focus on rebounds; do not think about long-term, as the long-term conditions are not yet met. The liquidity and structural changes have not fundamentally changed, and can only be viewed as a rebound. The market can welcome a favorable turning event, which is the easing of Trump's tariff policy; after all, this is already the worst situation. I believe that subsequent policy changes will bring more relative benefits. Secondly, it is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, whether to end balance sheet reduction or even expand it, the number of interest rate cuts, and whether it can start cutting rates in May and June will bring a turning point to the market!