The race for the first U.S. spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF intensified this week as 21Shares officially submitted a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 9. This puts 21Shares alongside other major players like Grayscale and Bitwise, who have also filed similar applications earlier this year, signaling growing institutional interest in the memecoin space.
DOGE ETF Approval Odds Shift Slightly in 2025
Earlier this year, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimated a 75% chance of DOGE ETF approval in 2025. However, current figures on the prediction platform Polymarket show that odds have dipped to 64%, reflecting slight market uncertainty.
Despite this, the crypto community remains optimistic about the approval prospects, especially as the SEC continues to face growing pressure to support diversified crypto products.
Mixed Market Signals for DOGE
While ETF optimism builds, on-chain indicators reveal a cautious mood in the broader DOGE market:
Miners have resumed accumulation, increasing holdings from 831 million to 907 million DOGE since March—suggesting long-term confidence.
However, retail activity remains low, with muted social volumes and stagnant active user metrics.
Large whale wallets, particularly those holding over 1 billion DOGE, have continued dumping since December and have not shown signs of reversal. This selling pressure casts doubt on a sustained recovery, as DOGE’s price is heavily influenced by these large holders.
DOGE Price Outlook: Holding on at Key Support
DOGE has retraced significantly, erasing its previous U.S. election-related gains and falling back to $0.15—a level last tested in November and briefly held as support in March.
Should this level break decisively, analysts warn of a potential decline toward $0.10 or even $0.06. Conversely, reclaiming the 200-day moving average (DMA) above $0.25 would be a strong bullish signal and may revive investor interest.
As the second quarter unfolds, the memecoin’s fate may depend not just on ETF approval but also on a shift in sentiment among major stakeholders.
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