$BTC Bitcoin (BTC) is facing many mixed factors, making the short-term trend difficult to predict. Bullish (Long):
1. Macroeconomic factors: Interest rate cuts from the Fed (expected 2024) could stimulate cash flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. If U.S. inflation decreases, BTC will benefit from a weaker USD.
2. Limited supply: The halving in April 2024 reduces block rewards, tightening supply - a factor that has previously driven BTC up after past cycles.
3. Institutional FOMO: Approved Bitcoin ETFs, along with interest from large funds (BlackRock, Fidelity), could create an accumulation momentum. If it surpasses the $65,000 threshold, BTC has a chance to reach $75,000–$80,000.
Bearish (Short):
1. Selling pressure from miners: BTC prices are near the profit bottom for miners ($58,000–$60,000); if it drops further, they may offload to cover costs.
2. Geopolitical risks: Escalating Middle Eastern conflicts or global banking crises could trigger a "flight to safety," pushing money into USD and gold, leaving BTC behind.
3. Thin liquidity: Strong volatility often occurs in the lower price range of $60,000, easily creating a "stop-loss cascade" if this psychological support is broken.
Strategy:
* Long if BTC holds above $60,000 combined with positive signals from the Fed or a spike in ETF cash flow. Target $70,000-$75,000.
* Short if BTC breaks below $58,000 accompanied by macro negative news or strong miner selling. Target $52,000–$55,000.
Note: Manage risk tightly with stop-loss (3–5% of the account), avoid high leverage in the context of unpredictable volatility. Closely monitor U.S. inflation data (CPI), ETF flows, and Fed movements to adjust orders timely.