Many people always think they can sell in a bull market and buy the dip in a bear market.
In fact, bull and bear markets are only recognized after the fact; during this process, you cannot know.
Based on your ignorance, there are no conditions for judgment, so the so-called selling in a bull market and buying the dip in a bear market is an impossible concept.
Many people say, how could you not know? $100,000 is the bull market, $70,000 is the bear market. Then I ask you, what about $150,000? $200,000? And then it drops to $50,000 or $60,000? What do you say then?
Based on selling in a bull market and buying the dip in a bear market, those who succeed are actually just lucky.
What you can truly control in the cryptocurrency market are two actions and one variable: buy, sell, and how much to buy or sell.
Other things are not under your control.
From a retrospective view, for example today, $100,000 should be sold. But when you should buy at the bottom, you don't know. When it drops to $50,000 and then to $20,000, you will think that $50,000 to $80,000 is the time to buy. But if it doesn't drop or rise, at this moment, you will never know.
So the concept of selling in a bull market and buying the dip in a bear market is fundamentally wrong. If the concept is wrong, the understanding is wrong; if the understanding is wrong, the behavior is wrong; if the behavior is wrong, making money becomes very difficult.
One rule in the cryptocurrency market that I want to mention today is rapid increases and slow declines.
Bitcoin's rise from $15,000 to $100,000 seems very emotional, as it is all an upward process.
In fact, the real surges in price only last for a few days; most of the time, if you look closely, it is just oscillation.
After oscillating for a certain period, it will rise quickly. If you are not always in the car, you won't be able to keep up.
It's like when you are in a car, and it suddenly accelerates; how could you possibly catch up unless you are always in the car?
The transition from the end of a bull market to the beginning of a bear market is harder for people to notice.
For example, it is currently $80,000. Altcoins have dropped by 70%. Later, altcoins may continue to drop by 50%.
Why, when it drops, do you see it but still not sell? You would rather be deeply trapped than escape.
This is because declines in the cryptocurrency market are very slow. The specific situation may look like this: you invest 1 million, it rises to 3 million, and then drops to 2.7 million. You don't want to sell, thinking about selling at 3 million. As a result, it rebounds to 2.8 million, then continues to drop to 2.5 million. You think about selling at 2.8 million, but it directly drops to 2 million, so you decide not to sell. Finally, 2 million becomes 1 million, and then it goes up again to 1.5 million; you can only pretend not to see it. 1 million becomes 500,000, then rises to 700,000, and you are already helpless, thinking it might as well be like this. In this process, with every rebound, you expect to return to the original price, but the market is no longer the same as before.
Why doesn't the market drop quickly? This is because if the big players sell all at once, they won't get a good price. Their volume is too large, so they can only sell slowly, using various positive news with every rebound to sell. The occurrence of catastrophic market conditions is actually caused by a chain reaction. These opportunities are money-making opportunities; after a sharp decline, it won't take long before there is a rebound, and many bold people will instead gamble on emotional money. Therefore, when it drops, it is very torturous, especially for altcoins. If there is a panic sell-off, you may really be scared and cut losses, but in fact, it rarely crashes rapidly; it's all about going up and down, like if the price is 10, six months later it might suddenly drop to 1, a 90% drop. During this process, it seems as if something is blocking your vision, and you simply don't know.
In fact, you just haven't undergone deliberate training, so your awareness of the trend of price decline is not obvious. This is the fundamental reason why newcomers can't make money in the first cycle.
In the second cycle, if you are still mixing with altcoins, you will gain experience, and after selling altcoins a few times, you will be completely accustomed to cutting losses. Once the market begins to decline abnormally, you will be very alert. For example, if you made ten times your investment and it drops to seven times, you will leave immediately; you won't cling to the idea of how much you want to earn.
In this process of understanding, hearing someone tell you a few times is not as effective as losing your own money once. After you cut losses, the first time it hurts, the second time you become numb, the third time you are calm, and the fourth time it feels easy. Then, you have succeeded; you can profit from any altcoin, and if they try to numb you later, they can't do it at all; you will immediately cut losses and exit.
I have seen many people unwilling to sell when they earn, waiting to break even. Selling coins feels as painful as selling a child. This is due to their lack of deliberate training.
The market operates according to human nature; it is all about human nature. People desire rapid increases, so the market will unintentionally surge quickly. People wish for a slower decline, to rebound, and to return, so it will drop very slowly.
But those who see through human nature are calm in the face of rapid increases and vigilant in the face of slow declines. At the first sign of trouble, they have already left.
Those who remain are just the ones picking up the pieces, and they still hope that the next wave of their altcoins will rise again, which is actually impossible.
The market has already completed the transfer of wealth through a wave of trends. This process is silent. Only those who have undergone deliberate training can feel it and earn money from it.