Cointelegraph
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Bitcoin crash risk to $70K in 10 days increasing — Analyst says it’s BTC’s ‘practical bottom’
Analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to $70,000 within the next ten days as one BTC pricing model suggests that the US-led trade war could upend investors’ risk-asset sentiment.
In his latest X analysis, network economist Timothy Peterson warned that Bitcoin may return to its 2021-era all-time high.
$70,000 is Bitcoin’s “practical bottom”
Bitcoin price expectations continue to deteriorate as the impact of “higher than expected” US trade tariffs hits home.
For Peterson, the outlook now includes an uncomfortable trip down memory lane.
“Bitcoin to $70k in 10 days?” he queried.
An accompanying chart compared Bitcoin bear markets and included Peterson’s Lowest Price Forward (LPF) metric — a historically accurate yardstick for gauging long-term BTC price bottoms.
“While this chart is not a prediction, it does provide data-driven expectations for what Bitcoin could do,” he continued.
“If it continues to track along the 75th percentile bear market range, then 70k would be the practical bottom.”
Bitcoin bear market comparison with LPF data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Peterson noted that the theory ties in with current LPF data, which last month said that BTC/USD was 95% certain to preserve the 2021 highs as support.
Prior to that, the metric successfully delivered a $10,000 price floor in mid-2020, with Bitcoin never again dropping below it after September that year.
Continuing, Peterson revealed probabilities for April which showed BTC price expectations in a state of flux.
“Bitcoin went from 75% chance of having a positive month to a 75% chance of having a negative month in just 2 days,” he summarized alongside another proprietary chart.
April BTC price expectations. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Bitcoin’s current price action is “often what a bottom looks like”
The bearish outlook of Peterson’s model is far from the only bearish warning coming to light this week.
As noted by onchain analytics firm Glassnode, many traders are attempting to shield themselves from further crypto market turmoil.
“Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities - a level of fear not seen since $BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23,” it revealed in an X thread on April 4.
Bitcoin options delta skew. Source: Glassnode/X
Glassnode nonetheless acknowledged that while under pressure, current price performance does not constitute a post-tariff capitulation of the sort seen in stocks.
“Despite this, $BTC hasn't broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect - rising panic without a price collapse - makes the current options market setup especially notable,” it continued.
“Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
In his latest X analysis, network economist Timothy Peterson warned that Bitcoin may return to its 2021-era all-time high.
$70,000 is Bitcoin’s “practical bottom”
Bitcoin price expectations continue to deteriorate as the impact of “higher than expected” US trade tariffs hits home.
For Peterson, the outlook now includes an uncomfortable trip down memory lane.
“Bitcoin to $70k in 10 days?” he queried.
An accompanying chart compared Bitcoin bear markets and included Peterson’s Lowest Price Forward (LPF) metric — a historically accurate yardstick for gauging long-term BTC price bottoms.
“While this chart is not a prediction, it does provide data-driven expectations for what Bitcoin could do,” he continued.
“If it continues to track along the 75th percentile bear market range, then 70k would be the practical bottom.”
Bitcoin bear market comparison with LPF data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Peterson noted that the theory ties in with current LPF data, which last month said that BTC/USD was 95% certain to preserve the 2021 highs as support.
Prior to that, the metric successfully delivered a $10,000 price floor in mid-2020, with Bitcoin never again dropping below it after September that year.
Continuing, Peterson revealed probabilities for April which showed BTC price expectations in a state of flux.
“Bitcoin went from 75% chance of having a positive month to a 75% chance of having a negative month in just 2 days,” he summarized alongside another proprietary chart.
April BTC price expectations. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Bitcoin’s current price action is “often what a bottom looks like”
The bearish outlook of Peterson’s model is far from the only bearish warning coming to light this week.
As noted by onchain analytics firm Glassnode, many traders are attempting to shield themselves from further crypto market turmoil.
“Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities - a level of fear not seen since $BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23,” it revealed in an X thread on April 4.
Bitcoin options delta skew. Source: Glassnode/X
Glassnode nonetheless acknowledged that while under pressure, current price performance does not constitute a post-tariff capitulation of the sort seen in stocks.
“Despite this, $BTC hasn't broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect - rising panic without a price collapse - makes the current options market setup especially notable,” it continued.
“Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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