Key Takeaways:
Long-term holders are in capitulation, historically a precursor to market bottoms.
ETH is now trading below its realized price—a metric linked to "smart money" accumulation.
Ethereum revisits 2018 cycle top, flipping it into a critical long-term support level.
Is the Market Just Handing Out ETH at Discounted Rates?
As Ethereum tumbles to multi-year lows, multiple on-chain signals and technical patterns are flashing signs of a macro bottom. With prices revisiting 2018 levels, analysts argue that we may be witnessing one of the best long-term accumulation zones seen in recent years.
Ali Sees Capitulation
Ali, a prominent crypto analyst, flags a critical sentiment shift via the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart. As ETH dives into the red "capitulation" zone, it signals that many long-standing holders are now underwater. This shift is notable—the NUPL has dropped below zero, a territory historically associated with market lows and panic-driven selling.
Source X post by ALI
The ETH price has mirrored this downturn closely since mid-February, now hovering below $1,500. Ali highlights this phase as a textbook setup where “strong hands” begin quietly accumulating, while “weak hands” exit in fear. From a risk-reward lens, these emotional capitulations often mark the end of a bearish cycle and the beginning of quiet accumulation phases.
MerlijnTrader Points to the "Smart Money Zone"
Backing Ali's perspective, on-chain analyst @MerlijnTrader underscores that Ethereum has fallen below its realized price—a key metric that measures the average acquisition cost across all holders. Historically, this has marked prime accumulation moments. In his words:
Source X post by cryptorank
The realized price has acted like a magnetic floor for ETH. Drops below it in early 2020 and mid-2022 preceded major upward movements. The current dip is eerily similar, indicating that ETH may be deeply undervalued from an on-chain standpoint. While the broader mood feels bleak, historical patterns suggest this zone often precedes a pivot in market structure.
CryptoGoos: “You're Buying ETH at 2018 Prices”
Echoing these bullish undertones, CryptoGoos points to a visual anchor in Ethereum's price history. The current levels are nearly identical to those seen during the peak of the 2017–2018 cycle. The long-term monthly chart reveals ETH retesting this zone for the third time in nearly seven years—a level that’s historically served as both resistance and support.
Source X post by RryptoGoos
This isn’t just coincidence. The $1,400–$1,500 area carries psychological and structural weight. It's where long-term investors often establish core positions. Two major rallies have emerged from this region, with the chart suggesting it could act as a reliable base once again. With ETH priced as if it’s 2018, some traders see this as a once-in-a-cycle moment.
Meta Description:
Ethereum hits 2018 price levels, triggering on-chain signals and key support retests that hint at a market bottom.
