#特朗普暂停新关税

The latest CPI data from the United States recorded at 2.4%, significantly lower than previous levels. It is noteworthy that after the release of this data, the market reaction was muted, with Bitcoin prices not showing any uplift and the Nasdaq index continuing to be under pressure, reflecting doubts about the credibility of the data.

From a policy logic analysis:

1. **Tariff-induced inflation easing**: The inflation pressure previously driven by tariffs has gradually been digested.

2. **Policy target approaching**: The current CPI (2.4%) is close to the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target.

3. **Recession risks still exist**: Signs of economic slowdown still constitute a motive for policy adjustments.

Based on the above factors, the assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window period:

- **Baseline scenario**: Start the interest rate cut cycle in May-June (probability 65%)

- **Conservative scenario**: Implement by July at the latest (probability 25%)

- **Policy flexibility**: The Federal Reserve may smooth the policy transition through expectation management.