Vito168
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Trade War? Trump, I'm sorry, you've fallen into the ambush of the Eastern Great Power. The true economic scale of the Eastern Great is equivalent to 1.3 times that of the United States. The foundation of the dollar is shaken, hold onto BTC.
At the beginning of this trade war, we all noticed that the Eastern Great's countermeasures were unusually swift and decisive. This stands in stark contrast to the first US-China trade war, where trade representatives were dispatched for negotiations and there were calls between leaders.
After the US raised tariffs on China to 124%, any further increases have little meaning; the Eastern Great has effectively suspended exports to the US. Under reciprocal countermeasures, US exports to China have also come to a standstill, while the Eastern Great has proactively expanded the scope of the trade war to include service trade, which seems to further guide the escalation of the situation.
Trump was basically unprepared for the Eastern Great's rapid and tough countermeasures. Since he first raised tariffs on China this year, he boldly proclaimed he was waiting for a “48-hour phone call” from the Chinese leader, but after being rebuffed, he still hasn't realized that the initiative is no longer in his hands. After imposing an additional 50% punitive tariff on the Eastern Great yesterday (bringing the total tariffs to 124%), he grandly declared that the Eastern Great would have 24 hours to “recant and correct” its stance. As a result, today he received another 50% punitive tariff imposed by the Eastern Great on the US.
Considering that the decision-making process of the Eastern Great is relatively more serious and procedural compared to Trump's “flexible and random” style, significant decisions cannot be made in such a short time. This means that the decision-makers in the Eastern Great have long prepared contingency plans, and the current situation is entirely within the Eastern Great's anticipated trigger plan. From this perspective, Trump is very likely being cleverly guided into a strategic dilemma based on his personal character and potential decision-making style.
In contrast to Trump's somewhat hysterical panic, the Eastern Great's trade moves are steady, swift, and ruthless, seemingly even taking the initiative to escalate the situation. No proactive communication, no compromise, no adjustments.
After the US-China trade disruption, the world may gradually come to realize who holds a more important position in global trade, who is truly the number one economy and trading nation. It should be noted that, as I mentioned before, due to the influence of international reserve status and financial settlement needs, the dollar is significantly overvalued compared to the real economic strength of the United States. According to calculations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, if we measure GDP based on the real purchasing power of currency, which is what a dollar can actually buy rather than the foreign exchange market rate, that is, using purchasing power parity (PPP), the Eastern Great's GDP surpassed that of the US back in 2014, and today the Eastern Great's economy has reached 1.3 times that of the US.
Based on the current exchange rate of the dollar to the yuan, the Eastern Great's manufacturing accounts for 33.5% of the global total, while the US manufacturing accounts for 16.8%. The US manufacturing capacity is only half of that of the Eastern Great, and if calculated using PPP, the actual US manufacturing capacity is estimated to only account for about 8% of the global total, comparable to Japan, slightly higher than Germany, and only about a quarter of the scale of the Eastern Great's manufacturing.
Considering Japan's population of 124 million, Germany's population of only 84 million, and the US population of 340 million, it is evident how significantly hollowed out the US manufacturing sector has become due to the overvaluation of the dollar as an international reserve currency over several decades since World War II.
The dollar, as an international currency, can be printed to buy anything, bringing great benefits to several generations of Americans. Americans do not need to “strive” to achieve a stable and affluent life; this is the myth of America’s “cash ability.” However, this “cash ability” has been corroded over decades, and its side effects have finally been exposed. It resembles the powerful ring from the movie “The Lord of the Rings,” which corrupts the soul.
Trump's anxiety may stem from his realization of the true situation; however, he misjudges that he can still reverse the situation, but it may very well be too late. The US has missed the strategic window for proactive action, and now it seems he has initiated an unaware and reckless challenge in the wrong way. I previously thought the Eastern Great might play along with him, but currently, it appears the Eastern Great may no longer intend to give him that opportunity.
On the surface, it seems this trade war was initiated by the US, and the Eastern Great appears to be the passive responder. However, it aptly fits the classic saying that “the best hunters often appear as prey,” and the Eastern Great is the true hunter in this game. Now, the Eastern Great has successfully lured the prey into a strategically prepared trap, allowing the US, led by Trump, to charge into the Eastern Great’s ambush circle, and they certainly won’t let the prey escape easily.
Unless Trump is willing to pay a sufficient price.
After an economic battle, the credit foundation of the dollar is likely to face significant impact, and asset prices will undergo revaluation; BTC must be held tightly. The process may be bumpy, but just like gold, which has withstood thousands of years of wars and various crises to form a consensus in human society, this is a test that BTC must undergo, and it will also be its coming-of-age ceremony to reach one million dollars.
At the beginning of this trade war, we all noticed that the Eastern Great's countermeasures were unusually swift and decisive. This stands in stark contrast to the first US-China trade war, where trade representatives were dispatched for negotiations and there were calls between leaders.
After the US raised tariffs on China to 124%, any further increases have little meaning; the Eastern Great has effectively suspended exports to the US. Under reciprocal countermeasures, US exports to China have also come to a standstill, while the Eastern Great has proactively expanded the scope of the trade war to include service trade, which seems to further guide the escalation of the situation.
Trump was basically unprepared for the Eastern Great's rapid and tough countermeasures. Since he first raised tariffs on China this year, he boldly proclaimed he was waiting for a “48-hour phone call” from the Chinese leader, but after being rebuffed, he still hasn't realized that the initiative is no longer in his hands. After imposing an additional 50% punitive tariff on the Eastern Great yesterday (bringing the total tariffs to 124%), he grandly declared that the Eastern Great would have 24 hours to “recant and correct” its stance. As a result, today he received another 50% punitive tariff imposed by the Eastern Great on the US.
Considering that the decision-making process of the Eastern Great is relatively more serious and procedural compared to Trump's “flexible and random” style, significant decisions cannot be made in such a short time. This means that the decision-makers in the Eastern Great have long prepared contingency plans, and the current situation is entirely within the Eastern Great's anticipated trigger plan. From this perspective, Trump is very likely being cleverly guided into a strategic dilemma based on his personal character and potential decision-making style.
In contrast to Trump's somewhat hysterical panic, the Eastern Great's trade moves are steady, swift, and ruthless, seemingly even taking the initiative to escalate the situation. No proactive communication, no compromise, no adjustments.
After the US-China trade disruption, the world may gradually come to realize who holds a more important position in global trade, who is truly the number one economy and trading nation. It should be noted that, as I mentioned before, due to the influence of international reserve status and financial settlement needs, the dollar is significantly overvalued compared to the real economic strength of the United States. According to calculations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, if we measure GDP based on the real purchasing power of currency, which is what a dollar can actually buy rather than the foreign exchange market rate, that is, using purchasing power parity (PPP), the Eastern Great's GDP surpassed that of the US back in 2014, and today the Eastern Great's economy has reached 1.3 times that of the US.
Based on the current exchange rate of the dollar to the yuan, the Eastern Great's manufacturing accounts for 33.5% of the global total, while the US manufacturing accounts for 16.8%. The US manufacturing capacity is only half of that of the Eastern Great, and if calculated using PPP, the actual US manufacturing capacity is estimated to only account for about 8% of the global total, comparable to Japan, slightly higher than Germany, and only about a quarter of the scale of the Eastern Great's manufacturing.
Considering Japan's population of 124 million, Germany's population of only 84 million, and the US population of 340 million, it is evident how significantly hollowed out the US manufacturing sector has become due to the overvaluation of the dollar as an international reserve currency over several decades since World War II.
The dollar, as an international currency, can be printed to buy anything, bringing great benefits to several generations of Americans. Americans do not need to “strive” to achieve a stable and affluent life; this is the myth of America’s “cash ability.” However, this “cash ability” has been corroded over decades, and its side effects have finally been exposed. It resembles the powerful ring from the movie “The Lord of the Rings,” which corrupts the soul.
Trump's anxiety may stem from his realization of the true situation; however, he misjudges that he can still reverse the situation, but it may very well be too late. The US has missed the strategic window for proactive action, and now it seems he has initiated an unaware and reckless challenge in the wrong way. I previously thought the Eastern Great might play along with him, but currently, it appears the Eastern Great may no longer intend to give him that opportunity.
On the surface, it seems this trade war was initiated by the US, and the Eastern Great appears to be the passive responder. However, it aptly fits the classic saying that “the best hunters often appear as prey,” and the Eastern Great is the true hunter in this game. Now, the Eastern Great has successfully lured the prey into a strategically prepared trap, allowing the US, led by Trump, to charge into the Eastern Great’s ambush circle, and they certainly won’t let the prey escape easily.
Unless Trump is willing to pay a sufficient price.
After an economic battle, the credit foundation of the dollar is likely to face significant impact, and asset prices will undergo revaluation; BTC must be held tightly. The process may be bumpy, but just like gold, which has withstood thousands of years of wars and various crises to form a consensus in human society, this is a test that BTC must undergo, and it will also be its coming-of-age ceremony to reach one million dollars.
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