Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, revealed in a company blog post on April 8 that reports indicate that China and Russia have begun experimenting with using Bitcoin and other digital assets for settling some energy transactions.
This move comes against the backdrop of the global trade war triggered by Trump, and China and Russia are not the only actors in the de-dollarization movement, as this trend is quietly spreading globally.
He also added that Bolivia has announced plans to use cryptocurrency to import electricity, while French energy giant EDF is exploring the possibility of mining Bitcoin using surplus electricity.
A weakening DXY may be beneficial for Bitcoin.
Sigel also advised investors to closely monitor the evolution of Fed policies, as historical data shows that a dovish shift in interest rate expectations and an increase in liquidity are usually favorable for Bitcoin's development.
He also mentioned the dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies. According to Tradingview data, the dollar index has fallen over 7% since the beginning of the year, currently standing at 101.7.
Furthermore, the dollar index, as a 'key signal,' may enhance Bitcoin's status as a hedging tool if the dollar continues to weaken, especially in the current backdrop of geopolitical division.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressed similar views in a blog post on April 9. He believes that the Trump administration seems intent on pushing the dollar to weaken, even if this move may cause the dollar to lose its status as the world's reserve currency. Historical data shows a significant correlation between a weak dollar and a strong Bitcoin.
Hougan further pointed out that the world may shift from relying on a single reserve currency like the dollar to a more diversified reserve system, in which hard currencies like Bitcoin and gold will play a more important role than they do now. This view is also supported by other market analysts, who generally believe that a weaker dollar is favorable for the cryptocurrency market.
The world is accelerating the journey of de-dollarization.
As early as the end of March, before the trade tariffs officially took effect, analysts disclosed to Reuters that Trump's trade and foreign policy is forcing Europe to gradually reduce its dependence on the U.S., which includes lowering its dependence on the dollar.
At that time, analysts keenly observed that European countries were beginning to seek more diversified paths in economic and financial fields to reduce their excessive dependence on the dollar-dominated system, a trend that is gradually becoming evident in international trade and financial transactions.
Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, further pointed out that Trump's threats of additional tariffs against countries trying to de-dollarize are ironically accelerating this de-dollarization trend.
Jane Foley believes that Trump's hardline policies have not only failed to curb other countries' de-dollarization efforts but may actually encourage more countries globally to accelerate this process to reduce their dependence on the dollar, thereby lowering their economic risks amid international trade and financial volatility.
Conclusion:
In summary, the global trade war and geopolitical tensions have given rise to a currency revolution. The attempts at Bitcoin by countries like China, Russia, France, and Bolivia in energy, mining, and imports, which seem like isolated events, appear to be reshaping the global monetary system.
The trade protectionism policies of the Trump administration have unexpectedly become a catalyst for this revolution. The continued weakness of the dollar index and the accelerated diversification of reserves by various countries are pushing Bitcoin from 'digital gold' to a new height as a 'strategic resource.'
At the same time, as energy trade begins to de-dollarize and national capital flows into the crypto market, Bitcoin has become a key variable in reconstructing global financial power. This transfer of monetary sovereignty may happen faster than we imagine.