加密航海家飞鱼
--
Bullish
Tonight's US CPI Data Expectations and Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
1. CPI Data Expectations
- Overall CPI:
- Year-on-year expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% (if realized, this would be the lowest since August 2024);
- Month-on-month expected at 0.1%, mainly due to a decline in energy prices.
- Core CPI (excluding energy and food):
- Year-on-year expected at 3.0% (previous value 3.1%), month-on-month expected at 0.3%, reflecting a rebound in commodity prices (such as clothing and electronics) and resilience in service sector inflation.
2. Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
- If the data is below expectations (year-on-year ≤ 2.5%):
- Positive: Expectations for a Fed rate cut may rise, Bitcoin could break the resistance level of $83,500, driving ETH and altcoins to follow.
- If the data is above expectations (year-on-year ≥ 2.8%):
- Negative: Expectations for a rate cut may cool, Bitcoin might retrace to the support level of $75,000.
3. Comprehensive Analysis
- Likely neutral to slightly positive: The current market has partially digested the optimistic sentiment of tariff suspension (90 days), and if the CPI meets expectations or slightly declines, short-term fluctuations may continue to rise, but one should be cautious of the volatility risks brought by core inflation resilience.
- On-chain signals: Binance's Bitcoin reserves surged (an increase of 22,106 BTC in 12 days), which may indicate that institutional entry or selling risks coexist, requiring judgement based on data results.
1. CPI Data Expectations
- Overall CPI:
- Year-on-year expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% (if realized, this would be the lowest since August 2024);
- Month-on-month expected at 0.1%, mainly due to a decline in energy prices.
- Core CPI (excluding energy and food):
- Year-on-year expected at 3.0% (previous value 3.1%), month-on-month expected at 0.3%, reflecting a rebound in commodity prices (such as clothing and electronics) and resilience in service sector inflation.
2. Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
- If the data is below expectations (year-on-year ≤ 2.5%):
- Positive: Expectations for a Fed rate cut may rise, Bitcoin could break the resistance level of $83,500, driving ETH and altcoins to follow.
- If the data is above expectations (year-on-year ≥ 2.8%):
- Negative: Expectations for a rate cut may cool, Bitcoin might retrace to the support level of $75,000.
3. Comprehensive Analysis
- Likely neutral to slightly positive: The current market has partially digested the optimistic sentiment of tariff suspension (90 days), and if the CPI meets expectations or slightly declines, short-term fluctuations may continue to rise, but one should be cautious of the volatility risks brought by core inflation resilience.
- On-chain signals: Binance's Bitcoin reserves surged (an increase of 22,106 BTC in 12 days), which may indicate that institutional entry or selling risks coexist, requiring judgement based on data results.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
