Last year, the market rose, and everything was peaceful, with good news everywhere.
This year, the market has good news and bad news, and the market has been declining all the way.
The main contradiction in the current market situation is the people's desire for a bull market and the market's ongoing decline.
The contradiction of when the market will rise from last year's increase and how much I should earn has shifted to the contradiction of people's desire to break even and the market's continuous decline.
No matter what good news you see or how you expect the market to behave, the market has its own trend.
This trend is a continuously downward trend.
The cause of this downward trend is that there are too many uncertain risks this year, leading people to voluntarily start selling risky assets in search of stability.
If there are no new contradictions to replace the old contradictions, then the current downward trend is the main trend.
Despite expectations of interest rate cuts in May, June, and September, these expectations are continuously strengthening.
However, the strength of the rebound is getting smaller each time. ETF capital is also fleeing time and again.
The 'King of Understanding' relies solely on his words to stir the market.
The motivation of the 'King of Understanding' is to make money and hope for market stability. He does not want the market to rise sharply, nor does he like it to fall sharply immediately.
So he keeps shouting orders, suddenly increasing tariffs, suddenly calling for people to buy the dip, suddenly delaying tariffs, and suddenly saying negotiations can happen.
It is hoped that the market stabilizes within a steady range, at which point he can influence the market.
The market can go up or down as it wishes. If asset prices have gone up too much beforehand, it will be difficult to go up further. If asset prices have gone down too much beforehand, it will be difficult to go down further.
This is exactly the purpose of the 'King of Understanding', so this is the biggest uncertainty.
If you go all-in in this market, then the risk is extremely high. You won't be able to withstand this mentality of gambling to get rich.
If you are doing dollar-cost averaging, then it doesn't matter; now is a good price to start investing.
If you want to buy the dip, I advise you not to act too early.
If you want to trade, then the difficulty is extremely high; leveraged contracts can easily lead to liquidation.
In the face of an extremely uncertain market, you cannot predict; if you ask anyone what to do, no one has an answer.
Although BTC will eventually rise to the heavens one day, if your position is too heavy, you will not be able to hold on until that day.
This is my analysis from a macro market perspective.
I will now continue to analyze from the micro perspective of the market.
Many people increased their positions in August-September-October, adding large positions in ETH at 3000-3500-3900.
These people who are trapped cannot cut their losses in the short term, and of course, it is impossible to allow them to break even.
Because there are no necessary conditions for breaking even, the market lacks liquidity; just look at how the US stock market has fallen.
For crypto to rise, the US stock market must rise; the capital from the US stock market flows into Bitcoin, then Bitcoin breaks through 100,000, flows into altcoins, which can trigger a comprehensive rise.
Those who are trapped and losing money will not resign themselves to cutting their losses.
If you think it is logical that a few people in the crypto space make money, then at this moment, the market cannot just start a bull market and rise sharply, allowing those who were previously trapped to make money. Therefore, from the perspective of the majority losing money, the market cannot rise immediately.
Most people probably do not have the bullets to add positions in the short term because their large positions are already trapped and have been lured by a wave of bull market expectations.
So these people later, in order to ease their lives, can only sell their positions at a loss to exit, which may allow the market to start a wave of increase.
The market has already fallen to the 70s; the 70s was the main trend in April. Will it drop to the 60s in May? It is entirely possible.
In June, it continued to hover around the 50s, then again hovered around the 60s, returned to the 70s in July-August, and may reach the 80s or 90s in September-October.
If there is significant good news at this moment, then it is very likely that BTC will directly rise to 200,000 in the two months of October to December.
Then Bitcoin will have a historical return of 50-100% in 2025. At this time, you need to have a position.
Then in January, it will directly drop from 200,000 dollars to a further 30% drop to 140,000 dollars, starting a bear market, falling to 60-70,000 dollars.
If there is significant good news in the market but it does not attract outsiders to enter, then the next wave of increase will reach a maximum of 110,000, not exceeding 130,000 dollars.
This is roughly the direction of the market's operation. To start a bull market at 200,000, there needs to be significant good news.
To start a bull market at 110,000 dollars, all uncertainties must be eliminated. Only then is it possible for the market to open.
As long as the trade war continues and various disputes persist, the macro issues will not be resolved. Therefore, a bull market will not arrive.
Because there are too many places that need money, crypto is highly risky; in the face of uncertainty, people can only seek security, and large funds will not rush in.
