US CPI Data Release Today: Will March Inflation Numbers Surprise the Markets?

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The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2025, set to be released on **Thursday, April 10**, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is under intense scrutiny from markets and the Federal Reserve. The figures could significantly influence the Fed’s decision on interest rate cuts—a notable decline in inflation may pave the way for easing, while an unexpected uptick could further delay monetary policy adjustments.

Market Implications of the CPI Report

Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com highlights the report’s potential impact:

Higher-than-expected inflation would reinforce expectations of prolonged high interest rates, pressuring equities like the Dow.

A cooling inflation trend could offer stocks a short-term rebound opportunity.

Fed vs. Trump: A Growing Tension

The Fed remains data-dependent, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating that rate cuts hinge on clear evidence of inflation easing. However, former President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to lower rates. Powell has also warned of inflationary risks from Trump’s proposed tariffs, including a 10% levy on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum. Even if March’s CPI meets expectations, the Fed may maintain its cautious stance.

Why This Matters

Markets are closely tracking inflation trends, especially after recent tariff announcements. Today’s data could set the tone for near-term Fed policy and investor sentiment.