🔔 Foreword:

Recently, the market has been sluggish, and the coin prices haven't shown much movement, which has instead led many people to calm down. Honestly, I feel this may not be a bad thing. When the market is too good, everyone is busy rushing in and hardly has time to reflect on how many default truths we've believed over the years.

One of the most typical sayings is probably the repeatedly mentioned four-year cycle theory.

You've definitely heard this logic: Bitcoin halves once every four years, and halving means a bull market is coming, and the entire crypto market will soar along with it. It sounds particularly reasonable, almost like a natural law.

But is it really so?

1️⃣ Let's clarify what constitutes a bull market. My personal standard is quite simple:

➤ Bitcoin Bull Market: Price hits all-time high;
➤ Cryptocurrency Eco Bull Market: Ethereum Hits All-Time High (After all, since its launch in 2015, Ethereum has become the barometer of the entire ecosystem)

As long as the price is still hovering below the previous high, no matter how hot the market is, it's just a rebound, not a bull market.

2️⃣ Were the past two 'synchronized bull markets' really a pattern?

➤ In 2016, Bitcoin halved, and in 2017, it surged; in the same year, Ethereum took off due to the ICO craze, bringing the entire crypto ecosystem along.
➤ In 2020, Bitcoin halved again, and in 2021, the price hit a new high. Meanwhile, the rise of DeFi, NFTs, and blockchain games propelled Ethereum to break previous highs.

Thus, everyone gradually formed a perception: Bitcoin halving = start of a bull market for the entire market. But upon closer examination, the underlying logic of these two events is completely different:

The rise of Bitcoin is more due to the supply reduction caused by halving, similar to a monetary policy logic.
The explosion of the Ethereum ecosystem relies on a demand surge driven by new gameplay, new narratives, and new applications.

The previous two bull markets synchronously erupted can only be said to be coincidental. The halving coincided with the emergence of new hotspots, and the two factors just happened to overlap, causing resonance. But this does not mean that every time Bitcoin halves, the Ethereum ecosystem will definitely take off.

3️⃣ This cycle proves: the two have decoupled.

In 2024, Bitcoin will halve as scheduled and set a new high, but Ethereum fails to break previous highs. Why? Because this round lacks true ecosystem-level innovation, with no revolutionary applications like DeFi or NFTs emerging.

My key insight for investors: Bitcoin's cycle can still reference halving logic, but its trend no longer necessarily represents the entire crypto market. The bull market of the crypto ecosystem needs independent judgment, focusing on:

🔸 Are there any groundbreaking applications being implemented?
🔸 Are new business models emerging?
🔸 Are users and funds genuinely flowing into the ecosystem?

🎯 In conclusion:

The future trends of the crypto market may become more differentiated. Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate according to the halving cycle, while the entire ecosystem's explosion requires true innovation to drive it. If one relies solely on past experiences, thinking that when Bitcoin rises, other coins will follow, it is likely to misjudge the market.

A real crypto bull market is not brought about by halving, but created by innovation.