The Trump administration adopted a policy of division, and its intentions toward China are very clear. Obviously, both sides are caught here, and decoupling and disconnection are highly likely to be unavoidable. Moreover, due to the collapse of the trust foundation, decoupling will not be limited to trade and economics, but will definitely spread to more fields, such as culture and arts, scientific research, environmental protection, and public health. Cooperation between China and the U.S. in these areas may very well regress overnight. So what does this mean for ordinary people?
Ordinary people may not care about international situations, but international events will surely impact ordinary people's lives, even if they are not engaged in foreign trade and hold secure civil service jobs. The current China-U.S. decoupling will truly affect everyone's work and life. For example, a straightforward situation is that imported medicines and equipment will become fewer, more expensive, and harder to obtain. On a macro level, the economy will further bear pressure, and the effects on prices, wages, employment, and education will transmit to everyone. Everyone may clearly feel that things are different from before. However, no one can currently provide a quantitative analysis of the specific extent of the impact. This situation, from top to bottom and from east to west, leaves everyone confused, and everyone is being pushed along by the circumstances. So what can ordinary people prepare for?
First of all, it is regrettable that what ordinary people can do is very limited. What can be done is to carefully examine their current career and professional direction, prepare mentally for the worst-case scenario that could be affected, and avoid being caught off guard. It's not necessarily about resigning or changing professions, but rather actively preparing an exit strategy. This is especially true for fields such as foreign trade and scientific research, which are at the forefront of the China-U.S. decoupling. Those who had not yet made a firm decision to transform should act quickly; those backup plans that were thought to be dispensable should be taken seriously; and projects that relied on China-U.S. cooperation should not risk one's career and life.
Second, comprehensively sort out the products and services from the U.S. that you and your family need, and assess what to do if prices rise significantly or if they become unavailable in the future. For skincare products, electronics, etc., there is not much to worry about, as most have alternatives; however, for some imported medicines and niche products, early preparation is necessary.
Third, seriously consider the asset allocation of the family. If holding foreign exchange, U.S. stocks, or other overseas assets, one must take into account the complete decoupling between China and the U.S., and not naively believe it won't affect them.
Fourth, those without a long-term U.S. identity can basically abandon the idea of immigrating to the United States. The difficulty and risk of studying in the U.S. will significantly increase, and the corresponding investment returns will also significantly decrease, although it has not yet reached a completely unfeasible level.
Regardless of how much current assets and income one has, it is essential to find a way to free up some liquid funds to have on hand; this is the confidence to deal with risks. Someone once said that a person's fate certainly relies on self-struggle, but it must also consider the historical process. Currently, we are in the historical process of the world's disintegration, and the order and rules that have governed the world over the past forty years have completely changed.